1211 Webb St · Henderson, TX 75654

$138,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1958 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! Many of the most expensive, invisible updates have been completed on this home. All new wiring, beam repairs, all new sub-flooring and flooring, and a new roof. Now you can make it your own with fresh paint and your style. The third bedroom is a flexible converted garage space with built-ins. At this price point, it won't last long, so make your appointment today.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#408 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Henderson ISD (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #573 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William E Wylie El (math 31% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 671 students, 66% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 785 students, 58% FRL); Henderson H S (math 39% / reading 53%, grade D-, #627 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 1,042 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($960 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,764 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $67,015
• Equity at exit: $125,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $204,188
• Equity at exit: $269,852

Cash invested: $38,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75654

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,126/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $114,904

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-97	+0% $-136	+5% $-175	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-177	+0% $-136	+5% $-94	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-66	-0.5pp $-101	base $-136	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,725
• Closing costs: $4,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1802 Elm St Unit 407 Henderson, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$930	$1.08	15d	1	0.87mi
1802 Elm St Unit 307 Henderson, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$895	$1.04	15d	1	0.87mi
504 S Van Buren St Henderson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	832	$1,336	$1.60	15d	3	0.90mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $138,900 Active
3. 2026-03-10
   soldstatus
4. 2022-12-07
   soldstatus
5. 1988-01-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,126 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 19.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,781
• − Property taxes: −$2,126
• − Insurance: −$694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,006
• − Management: −$1,006
• − Depreciation: −$4,041
• Taxable loss: −$4,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $-650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822970
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,296
• Composite: 27.91/100
• National rank: #6868
• State rank: #573 of 826 in TX

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #8434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,184

Population outlook (Rusk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,498 people
• By 2030: 52,093 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 50,866 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 49,696 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 48,583 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 43,265 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Rusk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.4) · D 20.0% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -59.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.1 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.83%
• Current HPI: 397.5
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-04-06 Listed $138,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,126 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.