11300 W Ina Rd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1995 1.00 ac lot Est $276k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! SOLD AS-IS! Bring your vision and unlock the potential of this desert property on a full acre in the beautiful Sonoran Desert. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious living room, separate family room with fireplace, and a 3-car garage with two separate bays. The fenced yard includes a chicken coop, plus plenty of room for RVs, boats, trailers, and toys. Recent upgrades include a reverse osmosis system, water softener, new furnace, new water heater, new A/C, and new stove. With a little TLC and updating, this property could truly shine. Conveniently located near Saguaro National Park, offering space, privacy, and endless possibilities. MOTIVATED SELLER! SOLD AS-IS!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 3 garage spaces (covered); Over-height garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Phone connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,792
• Exterior features: Covered, screened and enclosed patio/porch; Shed(s); Second garage; Block, chain link and field fencing; East/West exposure; Dirt road access (owner maintenance)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop and gas oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: No specific bedroom count provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings and high ceilings; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room (1 fireplace)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($236/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,278 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11103 W Panther Peak Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	1mo	$295,000	$188	70
7020 N Pelto Path	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-1%)	19mo	$300,000	$180	69
11056 W Panther Peak Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	19mo	$205,000	$122	66
7140 N Carless Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	6mo	$258,000	$165	65
11449 W Anthony Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	14mo	$275,000	$175	56
7287 N Cherokee Pony Trl	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (0%)	17mo	$260,000	$155	50
11321 W Picture Rocks Rd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (0%)	14mo	$270,000	$161	50
11610 W Massingale Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+0%)	20mo	$275,000	$164	49
6970 N Pelto Path	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+13%)	17mo	$289,000	$152	48
7342 N Cherokee Pony Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	8mo	$273,900	$153	47
7320 N Desert Plains Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-13%)	14mo	$220,000	$151	31
11095 W Anthony Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-14%)	18mo	$278,000	$193	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,206
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-56,260
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,396/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $90	+0% $20	+5% $-51	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-58	+0% $20	+5% $97	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $83	base $20	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6820 N Blue Blvd Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,500	$1.42	12d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,396 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$254/yr (+$21/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,396
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $1,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+153.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $249,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $264,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $269,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $279,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $279,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-31 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $284,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-04 Listed $289,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $285,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-01 Listed $300,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-03 Sold (MLS) $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-07 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2022-06-06 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-06-04 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-05-24 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-05-04 Price Changed $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-05-04 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-04-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-04-11 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2022-04-06 Listed $249,900 MLSSAZ
• 2010-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $114,100 Public Records
• 2010-03-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-12-07 Listed $127,999 MLSSAZ
• 2005-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-25 Sold (MLS) $97,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-08-31 Listed $98,500 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,396 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.