3012 Seattle Ave · Nederland, TX 77627

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1962 0.36 ac lot $143/sqft · 20% below area Est $317k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 4 Bedroom Home is located in the sought after area of North Nederland. Home has been well cared for. This one has all the bells and whistles you could want. It boasts of open spacing with Large Bedrooms, large bathrooms, large hallway for accessibility, large kitchen with spacious countertops and large breakfast bar that can double as an impromptu buffet. Large covered front porch area and one of the largest lots you'll find for sale today in the neighborhood. Room- Room Galore! Open Floor plan, Beautifully done Kitchen with Granite, Stainless Appliances, Travertine Backsplash, Breakfast Bar. Split Bedroom Plan, Premier Laminate Flooring, Tile & Carpet. Owners spared no expense in updating. Master Bath at it's finest! The guest Hall Bath has Double Sinks and separate make-up Vanity perfect for organization and privacy. This home is a masterpiece. Are you looking for a place to share with friends and family? Invite them all over at the same time. Inside & Outside living

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Large living room
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN AND DINING AREA
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• BACK PATIO
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story home; Located in Armstrong Estates
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,563 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,986
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -19.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2256 Hwy 69	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (-4%)	17mo	$230,000	$134	61
2803 Memphis Ave	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (+1%)	12mo	$240,000	$133	58
1815 N 19th St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+7%)	1mo	$329,000	$173	52
2425 N Bourque Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,040 (+15%)	9mo	$300,000	$147	42
3003 Spurlock Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,026 (+14%)	22mo	$339,900	$168	41
124 Crown Rdg	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-4%)	23mo	$299,900	$176	40
2903 Vernon St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,526 (-14%)	23mo	$194,500	$127	38
1111 Verna Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	1,982 (+12%)	20mo	$345,000	$174	35
118 Sterling Ridge Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-8%)	18mo	$299,000	$184	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-57,579
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,783
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,768/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $181,563

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-271	-5% $-344	+0% $-416	+5% $-488	+10% $-560
Rent	-10% $-567	-5% $-491	+0% $-416	+5% $-340	+10% $-265
Rate	-1.0pp $-287	-0.5pp $-351	base $-416	+0.5pp $-482	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2707 Seattle St Nederland, TX	3.0	2.5	2077	$1,850	$0.89	24d	1	0.14mi
3514 Hwy 69 N Nederland, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	15d	7	0.47mi
1903 N 19th St Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,950	$1.37	45d	1	0.63mi
3405 Landrey Ct Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,746	$1.20	15d	1	0.82mi
3119 Moor Dr Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1448	$1,795	$1.24	45d	1	0.96mi
1815 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	24d	1	1.01mi
2512 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1387	$1,795	$1.29	24d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $255,000 Active 532-char remark
19. 2015-06-29
    soldstatus
20. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Lovely 4 Bedroom Home is located in the sought after area of North Nederland. Home has been well cared for. This one has all the bells and whistles you could want. It boasts of open spacing with Large Bedrooms, large bathrooms, large hallway for accessibility, large kitchen with spacious countertops and large breakfast bar that can double as an impromptu buffet. Large covered front porch area and one of the largest lots you'll find for sale today in the neighborhood. Room- Room Galore! Open Floor plan, Beautifully done Kitchen with Granite, Stainless Appliances, Travertine Backsplash, Breakfast Bar. Split Bedroom Plan, Premier Laminate Flooring, Tile & Carpet. Owners spared no expense in updating. Master Bath at it's finest! The guest Hall Bath has Double Sinks and separate make-up Vanity perfect for organization and privacy. This home is a masterpiece. Are you looking for a place to share with friends and family? Invite them all over at the same time. Inside & Outside living

21. 2015-05-13
    listed $189,900 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Lovely 4 Bedroom Home is located in the sought after area of North Nederland. Home has been well cared for. This one has all the bells and whistles you could want. It boasts of open spacing with Large Bedrooms, large bathrooms, large hallway for accessibility, large kitchen with spacious countertops and large breakfast bar that can double as an impromptu buffet. Large covered front porch area and one of the largest lots you'll find for sale today in the neighborhood. Room- Room Galore! Open Floor plan, Beautifully done Kitchen with Granite, Stainless Appliances, Travertine Backsplash, Breakfast Bar. Split Bedroom Plan, Premier Laminate Flooring, Tile & Carpet. Owners spared no expense in updating. Master Bath at it's finest! The guest Hall Bath has Double Sinks and separate make-up Vanity perfect for organization and privacy. This home is a masterpiece. Are you looking for a place to share with friends and family? Invite them all over at the same time. Inside & Outside living

22. 2009-07-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,768 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,768 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$5,768
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$9,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,280
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $255,000 BBOR
• 2015-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-26 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2015-05-13 Listed $189,900 BBOR
• 2009-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,768 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.