3702 Hawthorne · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Fair condition Est $157k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• Community pool
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Located in THE WILLOWS park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Private water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Triple wide, Custom Villa model
• Construction: Siding (other)
• Exterior features: Garden/play area; Side yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $215k implies a 438% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.87%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,440
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3702 Hawthorne	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (0%)	5mo	$40,000	$24	91
3705 Hawthorne Dr #12	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+0%)	12mo	$215,000	$130	84
330 Benet	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (+8%)	3mo	$169,000	$96	75
3513 Alcott Cir #134	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (-5%)	15mo	$195,000	$125	74
3659 Shelly Ln #51	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+13%)	14mo	$175,000	$94	65
3764 Porter Cir #22	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-5%)	9mo	$198,800	$127	56
3621 Hawthorne Dr #110	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	19mo	$130,000	$90	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $236,821
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.04×
• Total profit: $604,174
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,007
• Net cashflow: $1,875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,421

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $215,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$6,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,602
• − Management: −$4,602
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $20,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,945
• After-tax cash flow: $17,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and overall condition, which would increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor landscaping — Overgrown vegetation needs trimming
• Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both repair siding — Fixes aesthetic issue and enhances value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation needs trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair siding — Fixes aesthetic issue and enhances value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+168.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Coming Soon $215,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-21 Sold (MLS) $40,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-07 Listed $80,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR