9212 Doe Cir · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1995 0.49 ac lot Est $154k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4/2 Doublewide On . 5 Acre lot. Located in Basswood Estates on a paved road. Home has a brand new roof, new 3/4 inch Ply-wood Flooring, Stone Fireplace, Large Kitchen, Newer Ac. It is currently being remodeled. Close to Deerpoint, Lynn Haven, shopping and Schools.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• 0.49 acre lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY
• UNDERGROUND UTILITIES
• PRIVACY CREATING HEDGES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount noted
• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed; Has land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Has cooling (central air); Has heating (electric and fireplace)
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; County residential single-family zoning; 215 x 100 lot dimensions
• Construction: Metal roof; Modular/prefab construction; Steel frame; Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a double wide mobile home body
• Exterior features: Lot on a cul-de-sac; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (19 x 11); Electric cooktop; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom (12 x 12); Bedroom (11 x 10); Bedroom (10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Full bath (8 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Fireplace(s) for heat
• Interior features: Living room; Primary bedroom with primary bathroom; Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $105k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.87%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,080
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9219 Doe Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	21mo	$207,000	$132	65
3706 Wild Turkey Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+9%)	11mo	$168,000	$107	64
9303 Gobbler Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	20mo	$128,000	$99	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $98,804
• Equity at exit: $87,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.56×
• Total profit: $251,692
• Equity at exit: $182,053

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $845/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $842

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    listed $105,000 Active
19. 2019-01-25
    soldstatus $53,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    4/2 Doublewide On . 5 Acre lot. Located in Basswood Estates on a paved road. Home has a brand new roof, new 3/4 inch Ply-wood Flooring, Stone Fireplace, Large Kitchen, Newer Ac. It is currently being remodeled. Close to Deerpoint, Lynn Haven, shopping and Schools.

20. 2019-01-08
    listed $60,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    4/2 Doublewide On . 5 Acre lot. Located in Basswood Estates on a paved road. Home has a brand new roof, new 3/4 inch Ply-wood Flooring, Stone Fireplace, Large Kitchen, Newer Ac. It is currently being remodeled. Close to Deerpoint, Lynn Haven, shopping and Schools.

21. 2018-05-21
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2018-05-18
    soldstatus $45,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    4 Bed Room Doublewide On 1/2 Ac. Lot in the Southportarea on paved street Home Has new 3/4 inch Ply-wood Flooring, Stone Fireplace, Large Kitchen, Newer Ac Unit Close to Deerpoint Lake Currently Bing remodeled.

23. 2018-04-19
    listed $45,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    4 Bed Room Doublewide On 1/2 Ac. Lot in the Southportarea on paved street Home Has new 3/4 inch Ply-wood Flooring, Stone Fireplace, Large Kitchen, Newer Ac Unit Close to Deerpoint Lake Currently Bing remodeled.

24. 2015-09-21
    soldstatus $24,000
25. 2015-06-23
    listed $26,000
26. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $56,500
27. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $845 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$845
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $7,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,878
• After-tax cash flow: $7,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+677.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $105,000 CPARMLS
• 2019-01-25 Sold (MLS) $53,000 CPARMLS
• 2019-01-08 Listed $60,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-18 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-04-19 Listed $45,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-09-21 Sold (MLS) $24,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-06-23 Listed $26,000 CPARMLS
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $845 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.