439 Glen Arvin Ave · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40508

$139,900

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 7,501 sqft lot Est $266k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Off-street parking; Garage faces the front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Built with aluminum siding and Masonite; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Approximate building area 1,912
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: No built-in appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Unfinished basement; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $739 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 313 students, 83% FRL); Winburn Middle School (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 800 students, 66% FRL); Paul Laurence Dunbar High School (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #12 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 1,946 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 44% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,159/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 2644% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.63%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,768
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
841 Georgetown St	0.28mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-9%)	24mo	$242,500	$139	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $35,826
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $143,849
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40508

• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $835	-5% $787	+0% $739	+5% $690	+10% $642
Rent	-10% $568	-5% $654	+0% $739	+5% $824	+10% $909
Rate	-1.0pp $809	-0.5pp $774	base $739	+0.5pp $703	+1.0pp $666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
263 N Limestone Lexington, KY	5.0	2.0	2500	$2,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $139,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-25
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $7,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $7,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,756
• Household income: $29,440
• Rent vs Own: 70.5% rent · 29.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2644.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.04%
• Current HPI: 204.3994
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.83%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $139,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2015): $219 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.