151 County Road 2801 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2001 0.60 ac lot $100/sqft · 14% below area Est $156k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! Welcome to 151 County Road 2801, Cleveland, Texas, 77327 a prime opportunity in the Spring Oaks Subdivision. THIS PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS-IS, REFLECTING ITS CURRENT CONDITION. Buy And Build Your New Home! The property is out of the flood zone. Don't miss this Fantastic Investment Opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 50 days

Tags

• SPRING OAKS SUBDIVISION
• OUT OF THE FLOOD ZONE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2001; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared corner lot; Lot approximately 0.6 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms with at least one bedroom on the first floor (one bedroom 8 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $135k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.64%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,424
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -13.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 County Road 2801	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$159,900	$128	77
188 County Road 2800	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	7mo	$159,900	$131	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $11,098
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $56,762
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $135,000 Active 313-char remark
15. 2026-04-19
    historical
16. 2026-03-01
    price $129,000
17. 2026-02-12
    price $135,000
18. 2025-11-25
    price $145,000
19. 2025-10-19
    listed $151,000 Active
20. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus $79,000
21. 2020-06-05
    soldstatus
22. 2020-02-04
    historical
23. 2019-11-17
    listed $79,900 Active
24. 2019-06-13
    historical
25. 2019-06-12
    status Active
26. 2019-06-06
    historical
27. 2019-04-08
    price $97,000
28. 2019-03-09
    listed $98,000 Active
29. 2018-06-30
    historical
30. 2018-03-13
    listed $95,000 Active
31. 2018-02-22
    historical
32. 2018-01-19
    price $95,000
33. 2017-12-20
    listed $98,100 Active
34. 2017-12-18
    historical
35. 2017-12-01
    price $99,100
36. 2017-11-16
    price $104,500
37. 2017-10-08
    price $108,500
38. 2017-10-03
    listed $98,500 Active
39. 2017-07-28
    soldstatus Sold
40. 2017-06-27
    status Pending
41. 2017-06-16
    price $57,330
42. 2017-06-07
    status Active
43. 2017-05-31
    status Pending
44. 2017-04-20
    listed $63,700 Active
45. 2003-11-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,096/yr (+$175/mo · 559.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$935
• After-tax cash flow: $4,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+111.9% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $151,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-17 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-04-08 Price Changed $97,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-09 Listed $98,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-03-13 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2018-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-01-19 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-20 Listed $98,100 HARMLS
• 2017-12-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-12-01 Price Changed $99,100 HARMLS
• 2017-11-16 Price Changed $104,500 HARMLS
• 2017-10-08 Price Changed $108,500 HARMLS
• 2017-10-03 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2017-07-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-06-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-16 Price Changed $57,330 HARMLS
• 2017-06-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-20 Listed $63,700 HARMLS
• 2003-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · -67.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.