106 Potomac Cir · San Marcos, TX 78666

$169,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1998 0.42 ac lot $95/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover an outstanding investment and renovation project with this completely gutted single-family home in the desirable Hughson Heights neighborhood of San Marcos. This 1,785 sq ft property is stripped to the studs, offering a true blank slate for your complete vision. While it requires extensive work including a new roof, full plumbing and electrical systems, new HVAC, windows, appliances, insulation, drywall, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior updates, the solid structure and prime location provide tremendous potential for significant equity building and long-term value. Situated in one of Central Texas’s fastest-growing cities, this property sits conveniently between Aust

Key facts

• trails
• schools
• Solid structure

Tags

• GUTTED SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• SOLID STRUCTURE
• PRIME LOCATION
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO PARKS
• TRAILS
• SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Assessed value and tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Two total parking spaces (both covered); Two-car garage
• Utilities: Utilities details available — see remarks
• Home design: Two-story home; Southeast facing; Property listed as tear down / value in land
• Construction: Shingle roof; Construction details available — see remarks; Slab foundation; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Back yard with chain link and wood fencing; Cul-de-sac lot with moderate, medium-size trees; Pool and other exterior features referenced in remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details — see remarks
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating details available — see remarks
• Interior features: Window details and additional interior features available — see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features described in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($278/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,303
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -53.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1608 Old Ranch Road 12	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,994 (+12%)	1mo	$375,000	$188	70
114 Algarita St	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,005 (+12%)	5mo	$395,000	$197	68
137 Chaparral St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-14%)	0mo	$325,000	$211	66
109 Cypress Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,726 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$177	64
133 Chaparral St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,004 (+12%)	1mo	$349,900	$175	64
19 Timbercrest	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,731 (-3%)	2mo	$350,000	$202	63
1610 Ramona Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-8%)	3mo	$298,500	$181	62
110 E Holland St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,839 (+3%)	7mo	$399,000	$217	61
207 Yale St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,758 (-2%)	11mo	$399,900	$227	58
109 Dolly	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,947 (+9%)	10mo	$315,000	$162	54
1333 Chestnut St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-5%)	9mo	$290,000	$171	49
604 Clyde Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-14%)	1mo	$299,000	$195	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-27,799
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-29,300
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,677/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Crest Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,700	$1.21	43d	1	0.15mi
114/116 Hughson Ct San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,895	$1.46	2d	1	0.22mi
902 Sagewood Trl Unit 904 San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1446	$1,595	$1.10	43d	1	0.33mi
1512 Old Ranch Road 12 Unit 12 San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	7d	1	0.34mi
885 Sagewood Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	4.5	1382	$2,600	$1.88	43d	1	0.38mi
864 Sagewood Trl San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.5	1373	$1,950	$1.42	43d	1	0.39mi
436 W Holland St Unit NA San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	43d	1	0.46mi
1502 Stokes Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,300	$1.49	43d	1	0.47mi
1740 Old Ranch Road 12 San Marcos, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–4.0	898	$972	$1.08	7d	11	0.48mi
802 Sagewood Trl San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,800	$1.38	16d	1	0.50mi
1806 Ramona Cir San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	43d	1	0.56mi
1224 Academy St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,290	$1.46	4d	1	0.58mi
703 Indiana St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,800	$1.39	43d	1	0.60mi
1350 N LBJ Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.5	1243	$1,122	$0.90	23d	28	0.84mi
301 Cardinal St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	1406	$1,100	$0.78	43d	1	0.96mi
2050 Lisa Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	1771	$2,400	$1.36	23d	1	0.97mi
44 Clark St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,650	$1.33	23d	1	1.01mi
918 N LBJ Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	4.5	1783	$2,800	$1.57	16d	1	1.03mi
901 Hillyer St San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1308	$1,750	$1.34	12d	1	1.03mi
1004 Hillyer St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	2276	$1,450	$0.64	2d	1	1.07mi
305 Forest Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1517	$850	$0.56	43d	1	1.15mi
1400 Clyde St Unit B San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	1384	$2,175	$1.57	17d	1	1.16mi
1105 Advance St San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	2454	$1,600	$0.65	23d	1	1.17mi
1113 Dartmouth Ave Unit A San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	1730	$1,175	$0.68	43d	1	1.17mi
605 Burleson St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,970	$1.30	43d	1	1.19mi
707 Allen St San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,850	$1.11	17d	1	1.24mi
705 Allen St Unit 707 San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	1.24mi
1000 Columbia St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,500	$1.19	17d	1	1.27mi
622 Dartmouth St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,250	$1.61	17d	1	1.36mi
726 W San Antonio St San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2258	$2,400	$1.06	2d	1	1.43mi
1017 W Hopkins St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$3,200	$1.78	4d	1	1.47mi
1017 W Hopkins St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$3,200	$1.78	17d	1	1.47mi
1120 W Hopkins St San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	1624	$2,700	$1.66	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   pricestatus $169,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   status Active 1377-char remark
7. 2026-05-04
   listed $185,000 Active 1377-char remark
8. 2020-01-02
   soldstatus
9. 2020-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,677 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,677 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$6,677
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,677 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.