1003 Merchant St · El Campo, TX 77437

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1935 7,000 sqft lot $112/sqft · 9% below area Est $110k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1003 Merchant Street — a charming starter home nestled in the heart of El Campo! This cozy residence is perfect for investors or anyone looking to enjoy the charm of small-town living. Located in a prime spot with convenient access to local dining, grocery stores, and daily essentials, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Whether you're starting fresh or downsizing, this cutie is ready to welcome you home!

Key facts

• Grocery stores
• Convenient access
• Daily essentials

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL DINING
• GROCERY STORES
• DAILY ESSENTIALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in El Campo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime D-.
• El Campo ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #387 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,323
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -9.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1216 Merchant St	0.21mi	2/1.0	992 (+11%)	1mo	$88,000	$89	72
605 Fahrenthold St	0.39mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	5mo	$120,000	$122	62
629 W Norris St	0.60mi	2/1.0	942 (+5%)	3mo	$112,000	$119	61
507 Elm St	0.41mi	2/1.0	864 (-4%)	17mo	$85,000	$98	61
611 Fahrenthold St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	951 (+6%)	11mo	$148,000	$156	59
409 Doris St	0.58mi	2/1.0	832 (-7%)	12mo	$90,000	$108	51
501 Pierce St	0.52mi	2/1.0	960 (+7%)	21mo	$179,999	$187	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-7,423
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $4,989
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77437

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,189/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $948

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2001 Avenue F Unit F El Campo, TX	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,121	$1.00	44d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-02-10
    price $113,000

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Welcome to 1003 Merchant Street — a charming starter home nestled in the heart of El Campo! This cozy residence is perfect for investors or anyone looking to enjoy the charm of small-town living. Located in a prime spot with convenient access to local dining, grocery stores, and daily essentials, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Whether you're starting fresh or downsizing, this cutie is ready to welcome you home!

18. 2026-02-10
    price $115,000

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Welcome to 1003 Merchant Street — a charming starter home nestled in the heart of El Campo! This cozy residence is perfect for investors or anyone looking to enjoy the charm of small-town living. Located in a prime spot with convenient access to local dining, grocery stores, and daily essentials, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Whether you're starting fresh or downsizing, this cutie is ready to welcome you home!

19. 2026-02-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Welcome to 1003 Merchant Street — a charming starter home nestled in the heart of El Campo! This cozy residence is perfect for investors or anyone looking to enjoy the charm of small-town living. Located in a prime spot with convenient access to local dining, grocery stores, and daily essentials, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Whether you're starting fresh or downsizing, this cutie is ready to welcome you home!

20. 2026-02-10
    listed $115,000 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Welcome to 1003 Merchant Street — a charming starter home nestled in the heart of El Campo! This cozy residence is perfect for investors or anyone looking to enjoy the charm of small-town living. Located in a prime spot with convenient access to local dining, grocery stores, and daily essentials, this home offers both comfort and convenience. Whether you're starting fresh or downsizing, this cutie is ready to welcome you home!

21. 2025-09-22
    price $113,000
22. 2025-09-08
    price $115,000
23. 2025-07-11
    listed $118,000 Active
24. 2025-06-14
    historical $1,300
25. 2025-06-13
    historical
26. 2025-05-20
    listed $1,300
27. 2024-10-27
    price $118,000
28. 2024-10-13
    price $120,000
29. 2024-10-01
    price $125,000
30. 2024-09-20
    price $130,000
31. 2024-09-12
    price $140,000
32. 2024-08-17
    listed $147,000 Active
33. 2023-09-27
    soldstatus
34. 2023-09-26
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2023-09-03
    status Pending
36. 2023-08-29
    status Option Pending
37. 2023-07-24
    listed $68,000 Active
38. 2023-07-03
    historical $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,189 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,189 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,189
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24
• After-tax cash flow: $1,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Campo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,351
• Composite: 34.82/100
• National rank: #5102
• State rank: #387 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Campo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #5196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Campo, TX
• City population: 18,886
• Population (ZIP): 18,886

Population outlook (Wharton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,448 people
• By 2030: 42,726 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 43,042 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 43,368 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 44,962 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 44,510 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 44% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Wharton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.8% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.78%
• Current HPI: 181.5905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $113,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $113,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $118,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $118,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-13 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-17 Listed $147,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-09-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-07-24 Listed $68,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-03 Coming Soon $68,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,189 · +108.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.