13416 Noble Garnet Ln · Parrish, FL 34219

$234,940

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,993 sqft · Townhouse · 97 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $273k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story townhome has plenty of shared living and entertaining spaces. The first floor showcases an open layout that flows from the kitchen to the dining room and family room and out to a covered porch. Upstairs is a central loft, surrounded by all three bedrooms including the owner's suite with private bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Central loft
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PORCH
• CENTRAL LOFT
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $234,940

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: Single-family residence (Bimini plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 13416 Noble Garnet Ln, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Bimini plan); Living area approximately 1,993

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $214k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,795 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.90%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,041
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12751 Crystal Jade Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,993 (0%)	10mo	$255,540	$128	87
13518 White Gold Run	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,993 (0%)	10mo	$262,340	$132	86
13575 White Gold Run	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+0%)	7mo	$253,250	$126	86
13535 White Gold Run	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,993 (0%)	11mo	$274,990	$138	84
13523 White Gold Run	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,993 (0%)	11mo	$269,900	$135	84
12680 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,747 (-12%)	1mo	$238,000	$136	73
12676 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-14%)	3mo	$235,000	$137	71
12636 Peaceful Peridto Way	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,158 (+8%)	8mo	$325,900	$151	70
13510 White Gold Run	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,162 (+8%)	10mo	$272,790	$126	68
12628 Peaceful Peridot Way Unit na	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,747 (-12%)	8mo	$241,500	$138	66
13526 White Gold Run	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,747 (-12%)	12mo	$249,900	$143	65
13204 Stable Pl	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-14%)	7mo	$299,999	$176	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-8,220
• Equity at exit: $35,030

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,164
• Equity at exit: $20,313

Cash invested: $65,783 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $234,940

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $760	-5% $679	+0% $597	+5% $516	+10% $435
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $486	+0% $597	+5% $708	+10% $819
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $657	base $597	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,735
• Closing costs: $7,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	4d	1	0.03mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	4d	1	0.08mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	17d	1	0.44mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,160
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,699
• − Management: −$2,699
• − Depreciation: −$6,835
• Taxable income: $3,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $6,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B