119 Capital Rd · Roscommon, MI 48629

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 307 Days on market

3,200 sqft lot Est $148k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON THE MARKET!! Just 6 houses from Houghton Lake shore with water views. This 3 bedroom 1 bath home with a 1 car detached garage offers knotty pine interior, hardwood floors natural gas furnace plus a stand free wood burning stove for those cozy winter nights. There's a newer roof, additional unused flooring and new shower and bathroom cabinet still in the box and is included in the sale. Seller is offering a $5000.00 remodeling allowance back at closing for the Sale Price of $95,000.00. Seller is asking for reasonable and serious offers only, preapproval or proof of funds with all offers.

Key facts

• Knotty pine interior
• New shower
• Newer roof

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE INTERIOR
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL GAS WALL FURNACE
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: On waterfront; Accessible entrance; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; Wood heating; Wood stove; Cooling present
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main level; Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($593/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.3% in Roscommon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#250 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Collins Elementary School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #918 of 1,397 statewide, top 66%, 555 students, 76% FRL); Houghton Lake Jrsr High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #462 of 713 statewide, top 66%, 511 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 57% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $90k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Shoreline Dr	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,008 (+2%)	12mo	$151,000	$150	82
109 Simmer St	0.08mi	2/1.0	950 (-4%)	12mo	$229,900	$242	80
110 Cass St	0.14mi	2/1.0	880 (-11%)	5mo	$130,000	$148	71
105 Clarence St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+1%)	12mo	$133,900	$134	60
909 Collingwood Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	850 (-14%)	15mo	$135,000	$159	52
414 Superior	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,060 (+7%)	20mo	$154,900	$146	50
405 Myers Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+6%)	8mo	$203,000	$193	46
109 Cooper Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-3%)	10mo	$130,000	$135	46
103 Lakeside Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	855 (-14%)	10mo	$55,000	$64	44
8239 Knapp Rd	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,092 (+10%)	14mo	$163,000	$149	36
105 Byron Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	912 (-8%)	24mo	$116,500	$128	33
6132 W Houghton Lake Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	864 (-13%)	7mo	$385,000	$446	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-11,428
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-5,869
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48629

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,235/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $75	+0% $49	+5% $24	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $16	+0% $49	+5% $83	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $72	base $49	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 301 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 298 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 289 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 288 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 287 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 286 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 285 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    status Active
19. 2026-05-20
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2025-09-05
    status Active
21. 2025-09-04
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2025-08-07
    listed $90,000 Active
23. 2024-07-16
    listed $120,000 Active
24. 2024-05-28
    listed $129,000 Active
25. 2020-12-29
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,235 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,235
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$804
• − Management: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houghton Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,744
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8158
• State rank: #410 of 540 in MI

Livability — Roscommon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #6191

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houghton Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 7,922

Population outlook (Roscommon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,249 people
• By 2030: 21,206 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 19,070 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 17,564 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,420 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 13,168 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica

Political lean MEDSL · Roscommon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.9) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.9 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.09%
• Current HPI: 303.1638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+157.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2025-09-04 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $90,000 WWMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $120,000 WWMLS
• 2024-05-28 Listed $129,000 WWMLS
• 2020-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,235 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.