220 Hollyglen St · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,094 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1980 8,146 sqft lot $81/sqft · 32% below area Est $195k · 13% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful property ideal for entertaining family and friends, whether as a weekend retreat or full time residence. Double pie-shaped lot with road frontage on two sides. This inviting home features an open floor plan with a fireplace that can be wood burning and includes propane gas starter logs currently not connected. Propane tank in front yard will remain with the property. Anderson windows throughout were updated less than approximately five years ago. The primary bedroom includes a relaxing jetted walk-in tub. Enjoy the enclosed front porch filled with natural light from numerous windows, plus a covered back porch with ramps for easy access. The storage shed located behind the home in

Key facts

• Propane tank
• Open floor plan
• Anderson windows

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE
• PROPANE TANK
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• JETTED WALK-IN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Washer, dryer and freezer excluded from sale
• Financial info: Accepting Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee of $200; HOA provides full use of facilities; Community features include lake access, boat ramp, community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; On-site storage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1980; Siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gutters; Irregular lot; Garage(s) and shed(s) on the property; Less than 0.5 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Additional bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with jetted tub, separate shower, and separate vanities
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Cable TV available
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,163
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -12.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Spring Valley St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,340 (+12%)	8mo	$210,000	$90	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,582
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,289
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,443/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $266	+0% $218	+5% $170	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $152	+0% $218	+5% $284	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $261	base $218	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Cottonwood Trl Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$1,980	$1.07	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    listed $175,000 Active 1120-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,668/yr (+$139/mo · 115.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,443
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$37
• After-tax cash flow: $2,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $175,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,443 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.