10098 Heritage Oak Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$219,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,713 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Built 2018 436 sqft lot Est $156k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully cared for 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage home that feels like new and is truly move-in ready. The bright, open layout flows from a spacious kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a large island with seating into the living and dining areas, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite offers two walk-in closets and a generous bath with double sinks and a private shower. The guest bath includes a full tub for relaxing soaks and the laundry room provides built-in cabinets for extra storage. Step outside to a beautifully landscaped backyard with a concrete patio, pergola, and easy-care drip system-i

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Two walk-in closets
• Generous bath

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• LARGE ISLAND WITH SEATING
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS
• GENEROUS BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Sierra Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #354 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 319 students, 34% FRL); Magnolia Intermediate (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 379 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,556 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.89%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,883
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10098 Heritage Oak Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,713 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$111	99
10024 Golden Shore Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-9%)	0mo	$210,000	$134	83
14867 Hidden Rock Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-3%)	1mo	$186,000	$112	79
14873 Hidden Rock Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-0%)	9mo	$155,000	$91	73
10162 Stone Arch Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-3%)	10mo	$79,000	$48	69
10212 Dalewood Way #35	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+5%)	4mo	$211,000	$117	67
10124 Hidden Springs Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+9%)	2mo	$95,000	$51	65
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-13%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	64
14969 N Country Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-15%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	62
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-10%)	2mo	$75,000	$49	58
14859 Hidden Rock Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (-10%)	9mo	$270,000	$175	56
10192 Stone Arch Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-13%)	7mo	$74,000	$50	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-46
• Equity at exit: $32,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $45,792
• Equity at exit: $19,017

Cash invested: $61,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,523/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $219,950

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $683	-5% $621	+0% $559	+5% $497	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $357	-5% $458	+0% $559	+5% $660	+10% $760
Rate	-1.0pp $670	-0.5pp $615	base $559	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $444

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,988
• Closing costs: $6,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	4d	1	1.42mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,523
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$6,399
• Taxable income: $3,359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$806
• After-tax cash flow: $5,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,523 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.