13-B Walnut Rd · Stafford, NJ 08050

$199,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $300k · 33% under $177/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 13B! Move in ready - everything has been updated for you! Beautifully landscaped, with a lush green grass yard. Pull into a driveway that can accommodate 3+ cars. Enter the sun drenched sun room, with custom plantation shutters. Next is the bright living room w/ custom plantation shutters & open to the dining room. The new modern kitchen has white cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances & tile flooring. 2 spacious bedrooms with custom blinds. The primary bedroom has a new 1/2 bath. A new full hall bath as well. There's also a full laundry room with extra storage. Fawn Lakes is a 55+ community that offers maintenance free living in a serene neighborhood, with amenities - and less than 10 miles to the beautiful sandy beaches of LBI.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Landscaped yard
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• LANDSCAPED YARD
• SUN DRENCHED SUN ROOM
• CUSTOM PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Southern Regional School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #251 of 472 in NJ (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,925
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Sycamore Rd #17	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-1%)	5mo	$150,000	$142	81
53 Sycamore Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,126 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$231	80
10 Magnolia Rd #19	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,126 (+5%)	6mo	$242,000	$215	79
14 Walnut Rd	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,126 (+5%)	15mo	$220,000	$195	76
19 Cedar Ave	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+3%)	7mo	$315,000	$283	75
4 Cedar Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,070 (-0%)	16mo	$299,000	$279	74
54 Dogwood Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,126 (+5%)	10mo	$246,000	$218	71
53 Deerfield Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,171 (+9%)	10mo	$350,000	$299	64
133 Longwood Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,171 (+9%)	12mo	$379,000	$324	54
20 Sycamore Rd Unit D	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	925 (-14%)	13mo	$154,900	$167	52
125 Torpedo Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+2%)	13mo	$425,000	$389	44
224 Stormy Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,209 (+12%)	15mo	$488,000	$404	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,364
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,649
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08050

• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,974

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $177 · $2,124/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to 13B! Move in ready - everything has been updated for you! Beautifully landscaped, with a lush green grass yard. Pull into a driveway that can accommodate 3+ cars. Enter the sun drenched sun room, with custom plantation shutters. Next is the bright living room w/ custom plantation shutters & open to the dining room. The new modern kitchen has white cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances & tile flooring. 2 spacious bedrooms with custom blinds. The primary bedroom has a new 1/2 bath. A new full hall bath as well. There's also a full laundry room with extra storage. Fawn Lakes is a 55+ community that offers maintenance free living in a serene neighborhood, with amenities - and less than 10 miles to the beautiful sandy beaches of LBI.

2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to 13B! Move in ready - everything has been updated for you! Beautifully landscaped, with a lush green grass yard. Pull into a driveway that can accommodate 3+ cars. Enter the sun drenched sun room, with custom plantation shutters. Next is the bright living room w/ custom plantation shutters & open to the dining room. The new modern kitchen has white cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances & tile flooring. 2 spacious bedrooms with custom blinds. The primary bedroom has a new 1/2 bath. A new full hall bath as well. There's also a full laundry room with extra storage. Fawn Lakes is a 55+ community that offers maintenance free living in a serene neighborhood, with amenities - and less than 10 miles to the beautiful sandy beaches of LBI.

3. 2026-04-11
   listed $199,999 Active

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to 13B! Move in ready - everything has been updated for you! Beautifully landscaped, with a lush green grass yard. Pull into a driveway that can accommodate 3+ cars. Enter the sun drenched sun room, with custom plantation shutters. Next is the bright living room w/ custom plantation shutters & open to the dining room. The new modern kitchen has white cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances & tile flooring. 2 spacious bedrooms with custom blinds. The primary bedroom has a new 1/2 bath. A new full hall bath as well. There's also a full laundry room with extra storage. Fawn Lakes is a 55+ community that offers maintenance free living in a serene neighborhood, with amenities - and less than 10 miles to the beautiful sandy beaches of LBI.

4. 2026-04-11
   listed $199,999 Active 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Welcome to 13B! Move in ready - everything has been updated for you! Beautifully landscaped, with a lush green grass yard. Pull into a driveway that can accommodate 3+ cars. Enter the sun drenched sun room, with custom plantation shutters. Next is the bright living room w/ custom plantation shutters & open to the dining room. The new modern kitchen has white cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances & tile flooring. 2 spacious bedrooms with custom blinds. The primary bedroom has a new 1/2 bath. A new full hall bath as well. There's also a full laundry room with extra storage. Fawn Lakes is a 55+ community that offers maintenance free living in a serene neighborhood, with amenities - and less than 10 miles to the beautiful sandy beaches of LBI.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − HOA: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3415480
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,588
• Composite: 33.85/100
• National rank: #5355
• State rank: #251 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Stafford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Acres, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 27,599

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -404.12%
• Current HPI: 369.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $199,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $199,999 BRIGHT MLS