531 Arneson Ave · Auburndale, FL 33823

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1961 7,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. SELLER MOTIVATED * * * PRICE ADJUSTMENT * * * Experience a true Florida lifestyle in this Auburndale gem, featuring a breathtaking daily view of Lake Ariana. This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is brimming with potential and ready for a new owner or investor to bring their creative vision to life. The interior layout is designed for flexibility, offering a dedicated bonus room perfectly suited for a quiet home office, and a converted garage that now serves as an expansive, sun-drenched den for family gatherings. Practicality is built-in with two large linen closets in the hallway for all your storage needs. Step through the back door to

Key facts

• Dedicated bonus room
• Converted garage
• Sturdy storage shed

Tags

• DAILY VIEW OF LAKE ARIANA
• DEDICATED BONUS ROOM
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• SCREEN-ENCLOSED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STURDY STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: R-1; Lot size approximately 0.16 acres; Living area reported as 1,000 sq ft (public records); total building area 1,432 sq ft; Water view: Lake / Chain of Lakes (no direct water access)
• HOA & community: No HOA association; Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details specified
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water availability and connection; Electricity available and connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Faces north; One story; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as one-level
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburndale Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $109k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,627
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $15,778
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,648/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $311	+0% $266	+5% $221	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $196	+0% $266	+5% $336	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $307	base $266	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Sunset Ave Unit B Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	16d	1	0.41mi
4 Sandy Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	954	$1,620	$1.70	25d	1	0.62mi
249 Century Blvd Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	5d	1	1.08mi
148 Madalyn Ct Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,950	$1.32	16d	1	1.30mi
192 Julie Ln Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	25d	1	1.31mi
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	1.41mi
3014 Reiter Dr Unit A Auburndale, FL	2.0	1.0	826	$1,325	$1.60	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $160,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $185,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-05-12
   price $185,000
9. 2026-03-31
   listed $195,000 Active
10. 2001-05-01
    soldstatus $109,200
11. 1999-05-11
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,648
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $3,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburndale, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+230.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $109,200 Public Records
• 1999-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+68.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,648 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.