3531 Exchange Dr · Jackson, MS 39212

$75,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1964 0.28 ac lot Est $100k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice large home on a quiet street. It has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large open kitchen and lots of storage throughout. Outback you will find a fenced back yard and a storage building. Property was built prior to 1978 and lead based paint may potentially exist. ***multiple offer situation all highest and best offer due by 4/19/2016 5:00 pm *****

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year reported from public records)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Aluminum-framed windows; Fireplace (other type)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sykes Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #319 of 375 statewide, top 88%, 325 students, 100% FRL); Whitten Middle School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #168 of 179 statewide, top 94%, 338 students, 100% FRL); Wingfield High School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #179 of 197 statewide, top 92%, 608 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.20%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,632
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
275 W Leavell Woods Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,864 (-3%)	12mo	$97,500	$52	65
228 Mikell St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-12%)	3mo	$90,000	$53	64
267 W Leavell Woods Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,747 (-9%)	3mo	$80,000	$46	62
3637 Sykes Park Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,952 (+2%)	14mo	$145,000	$74	61
3246 Beatrice Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (+0%)	10mo	$35,000	$18	58
201 S Sunset Ter	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (+2%)	22mo	$50,000	$26	57
448 Cooper Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,033 (+6%)	23mo	$45,000	$22	56
210 Cooper Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-10%)	13mo	$14,700	$9	53
152 W Woodcrest Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,785 (-7%)	16mo	$97,500	$55	47
118 W Leavell Woods Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,118 (+10%)	17mo	$117,900	$56	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $26,702
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $78,693
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,615/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $708

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
360 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1624	$1,575	$0.97	13d	1	0.20mi
3511 Sykes Park Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,426	$1.16	13d	1	0.35mi
103 Sykes Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.45mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	43d	1	0.63mi
140 Neatherwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,297	$0.89	13d	1	0.75mi
3901 Walker Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,100	$0.85	21d	1	0.81mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	13d	1	0.85mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	13d	1	0.86mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	43d	1	0.86mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	43d	1	0.90mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	43d	1	0.96mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	43d	1	1.00mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	13d	1	1.15mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	23d	1	1.23mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	43d	1	1.28mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	13d	1	1.35mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	43d	1	1.35mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	23d	1	1.45mi
1641 Woodburn St Jackson, MS	5.0	2.0	1300	$1,812	$1.39	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2025-05-30
    historical $1,675
19. 2025-05-20
    listed $1,675
20. 2016-12-19
    soldstatus
21. 2016-05-19
    soldstatus 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Nice large home on a quiet street. It has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large open kitchen and lots of storage throughout. Outback you will find a fenced back yard and a storage building. Property was built prior to 1978 and lead based paint may potentially exist. ***multiple offer situation all highest and best offer due by 4/19/2016 5:00 pm *****

22. 2016-04-13
    listed $27,500 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    Nice large home on a quiet street. It has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large open kitchen and lots of storage throughout. Outback you will find a fenced back yard and a storage building. Property was built prior to 1978 and lead based paint may potentially exist. ***multiple offer situation all highest and best offer due by 4/19/2016 5:00 pm *****

23. 2015-12-14
    soldstatus
24. 1993-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,615 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,615
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,482
• After-tax cash flow: $5,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-30 Rental Removed $1,675 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,675 APPFOLIO
• 2016-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-04-13 Listed $27,500 MLSU
• 2015-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,615 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.