Amaryllis Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$359,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily · 189 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Comfort and luxury inspire The Amaryllis floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Manvel. Create cherished memories and host unforgettable celebrations in the sunny family and dining spaces. Effortless style and elegant design pair perfectly with your culinary masterpieces in the tasteful kitchen at the heart of this home. Enjoy your leisure time to the fullest with the added lifestyle space of the covered porch and open study. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bath and walk-in closet. Both junior bedrooms provide plenty of privacy and a place for out-of-town guests and growing residents. Chat with the David Weekley Homes at Meridiana Team to learn more about the community amenities you'll enjoy after moving into this new home in Manvel, Texas.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Owner's retreat
• Open study

Tags

• AMARYLLIS FLOOR PLAN
• SUNNY FAMILY AND DINING SPACES
• TASTEFUL KITCHEN
• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN STUDY
• OWNER'S RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $359,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $416,039.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-712 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1243 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,857 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.33%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,039
• List price: $359,990
• Delta: -13.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5306 Majestic Ct	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+5%)	2mo	$449,900	$227	88
10110 Palm Springs Pl	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+0%)	1mo	$339,000	$178	76
10014 Agave Point Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,910 (+1%)	2mo	$340,000	$178	75
10003 Agave Point Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-3%)	1mo	$320,000	$174	74
10010 Napier Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+3%)	1mo	$322,999	$166	70
5114 Getty Ln	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,917 (+1%)	1mo	$373,214	$195	65
5243 Palo Verde Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-9%)	1mo	$319,990	$187	63
5619 Bobwhite Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,099 (+11%)	2mo	$474,900	$226	63
5247 Palo Verde Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+8%)	2mo	$345,990	$169	60
5030 Morrison Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,085 (+10%)	2mo	$389,990	$187	53
5115 Getty Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+10%)	1mo	$375,000	$180	47
5219 Getty Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,129 (+13%)	1mo	$379,000	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-113,335
• Equity at exit: $62,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-159,471
• Equity at exit: $35,971

Cash invested: $116,491 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1243
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,182
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,241/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,639

Max offer price $313,058

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,010
• Closing costs: $12,481
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	3d	1	0.32mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	24d	1	0.44mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	44d	1	1.43mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,990 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,990 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,990 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,990 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,990 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,990 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,990 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,990 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,990 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,990 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    price $359,990 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Comfort and luxury inspire The Amaryllis floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Manvel. Create cherished memories and host unforgettable celebrations in the sunny family and dining spaces. Effortless style and elegant design pair perfectly with your culinary masterpieces in the tasteful kitchen at the heart of this home. Enjoy your leisure time to the fullest with the added lifestyle space of the covered porch and open study. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bath and walk-in closet. Both junior bedrooms provide plenty of privacy and a place for out-of-town guests and growing residents. Chat with the David Weekley Homes at Meridiana Team to learn more about the community amenities you'll enjoy after moving into this new home in Manvel, Texas.

16. 2025-12-24
    price $365,990 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Comfort and luxury inspire The Amaryllis floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Manvel. Create cherished memories and host unforgettable celebrations in the sunny family and dining spaces. Effortless style and elegant design pair perfectly with your culinary masterpieces in the tasteful kitchen at the heart of this home. Enjoy your leisure time to the fullest with the added lifestyle space of the covered porch and open study. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bath and walk-in closet. Both junior bedrooms provide plenty of privacy and a place for out-of-town guests and growing residents. Chat with the David Weekley Homes at Meridiana Team to learn more about the community amenities you'll enjoy after moving into this new home in Manvel, Texas.

17. 2025-12-12
    listed $357,990 Active 817-char remark

    Show marketing remark (817 chars)

    Comfort and luxury inspire The Amaryllis floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Manvel. Create cherished memories and host unforgettable celebrations in the sunny family and dining spaces. Effortless style and elegant design pair perfectly with your culinary masterpieces in the tasteful kitchen at the heart of this home. Enjoy your leisure time to the fullest with the added lifestyle space of the covered porch and open study. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bath and walk-in closet. Both junior bedrooms provide plenty of privacy and a place for out-of-town guests and growing residents. Chat with the David Weekley Homes at Meridiana Team to learn more about the community amenities you'll enjoy after moving into this new home in Manvel, Texas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,305
• − Property taxes: −$6,241
• − Insurance: −$2,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,629
• − Management: −$2,629
• − Depreciation: −$12,103
• Taxable loss: −$16,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,870
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $365,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $357,990 Zillow