2026 Admiral Ln · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2018 6,118 sqft lot Est $257k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLERS OFFERING $3k IN CLOSING COSTS! Motivated Sellers!! Built in 2018, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort and smart efficiency in a highly desirable Aransas Pass location. Step inside to an open-concept living, kitchen, and dining area, perfect for everyday living and easy entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, a functional layout, and a move-in-ready feel make this home ideal for first-time buyers, growing households, or anyone looking for a newer build without the new-construction price tag. Also, don't forget the solar panels to help with energy costs! With motivated sellers and a price designed to move, this is an opportunity you don't want to miss. Schedule

Key facts

• Solar panels
• Open-concept living
• 6,118 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• SOLAR PANELS
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric service on property; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition (asphalt) roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.14-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Above-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Built-in electric oven; Oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.68%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,275
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1997 Admiral	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-7%)	1mo	$239,000	$204	86
2077 Admiral	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+7%)	14mo	$280,000	$208	73
734 Portside	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,169 (-7%)	16mo	$239,900	$205	66
2288 Saunders St	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,170 (-7%)	22mo	$475,000	$406	58
1689 Mooney Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+14%)	10mo	$315,000	$220	44
1246 Kenney Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+11%)	8mo	$135,000	$97	41
1111 W Johnson Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,338 (+7%)	15mo	$250,000	$187	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $47,415
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $154,719
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$458 /mo · $5,494/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $1,376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical
3. 2026-04-22
   price $249,000
4. 2026-04-13
   price $249,000
5. 2026-03-21
   price $249,999
6. 2026-02-09
   price $259,000
7. 2026-01-22
   price $265,000
8. 2026-01-22
   price $265,000
9. 2026-01-04
   listed $270,000 Active
10. 2026-01-04
    listed $270,000 Active
11. 2025-02-17
    price $265,000
12. 2025-02-02
    price $275,000
13. 2025-01-27
    listed $285,000 Active
14. 2020-09-02
    historical
15. 2020-07-31
    soldstatus Closed
16. 2020-06-25
    status Pending
17. 2020-06-03
    price $189,800
18. 2020-06-02
    status Active
19. 2020-04-24
    status Pending
20. 2020-03-02
    price $187,000
21. 2019-08-07
    price $181,600
22. 2018-11-24
    price $179,100
23. 2018-07-16
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,494 · $458/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,494 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$5,494
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,941
• − Management: −$3,941
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $13,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,227
• After-tax cash flow: $13,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — RAAR
• 2026-04-30 Delisted — RAAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $249,000 CBMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $249,000 RAAR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $249,999 RAAR
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $259,000 RAAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $265,000 RAAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $265,000 CBMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $270,000 CBMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $270,000 RAAR
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $265,000 CBMLS
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $275,000 CBMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $285,000 CBMLS
• 2020-09-02 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2020-06-25 Pending — CBMLS
• 2020-06-03 Price Changed $189,800 CBMLS
• 2020-06-02 Relisted — CBMLS
• 2020-04-24 Pending — CBMLS
• 2020-03-02 Price Changed $187,000 CBMLS
• 2019-08-07 Price Changed $181,600 CBMLS
• 2018-11-24 Price Changed $179,100 CBMLS
• 2018-07-16 Listed $179,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,494 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.