1461 N 26th Dr · Show Low, AZ 85901

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1988 6,098 sqft lot $224/sqft · 11% above area Est $207k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the cool pines of Show Low in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath retreat. From the expansive 40 foot deck, take in peaceful views of Fools Hollow Lake and Recreation area (which adjoins the property) and a rolling hillside with over 100 mature pines. Inside, this well-cared-for home offers comfort and charm, with a cozy wood-burning stove perfect for crisp mountain evenings. Ideal as a vacation getaway or a full-time starter home. Laminate floors/carpets, dual pane windows, natural gas heat, and evaporative cooler for summer days. Easy-care lot gives you time for hiking, fishing, boating and bird watching (kayaks included!!). Agents: Please see the Confidential Agent Remarks.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: Residential; Approximately 0.14 acre lot; Trees on property
• HOA & community: No HOA; Located in Fools Hollow Lake Resort neighborhood

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; City-maintained road access; APS electric available (individual metering); Metered water; Natural gas available; Power available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Single wide; One story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Panoramic view; Chain link fence; Double pane windows with screens

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Gas water heater; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Smoke detector; Split bedroom floor plan; Woodstove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in hallway

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.94%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,506
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 10.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2401 W Savage	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	11mo	$270,000	$264	83
2500 W Savage --	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	940 (-8%)	1mo	$153,000	$163	72
2325 W Sylvester Cir	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,121 (+10%)	3mo	$265,000	$236	66
2441 W Thornton Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	900 (-12%)	15mo	$215,000	$239	60
2380 W Rogers Loop Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	980 (-4%)	21mo	$150,000	$153	58
2330 W Sylvester Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-7%)	22mo	$135,000	$142	55
2511 W Old Linden Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+7%)	24mo	$175,000	$159	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-772
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $45,916
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $487/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,776

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4680 W Mogollon Dr Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,500	$2.17	13d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 682-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $229,000 Active 636-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $487 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,024/yr (+$85/mo · 210.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$487
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $3,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $6,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $229,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $487 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.