3045 Evelyn Rd · Austintown, OH 44511

$122,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1942 0.99 ac lot Est $195k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful cape cod in Austintown is centrally located and just minutes away from Cornersburg and Canfield. Nothing to do but move right in, this home has been totally updated. Eat-In Kitchen with neutral decor, ceramic tile, fresh finishes and all new appliances. Totally Updated in 2019, the bathroom is gorgeous with subway tile, new lighting, vanity & commode. The First Floor, Over-sized, Master Bedroom has french doors onto the patio, large closet and beautiful wood floors. Rounding out this home is the very large second floor bedroom that boasts multiple closets. Sitting on just under an acre there is plenty of privacy and a great amount of space to entertain between the large deck and large yard. Updates include Roof(2016), Electrical panel(2017), Siding(2011), HWT(2019). This home also comes with an HMS Home Warranty.

Key facts

• 0.99 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.8% in Austintown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#322 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Austintown Local Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #290 of 656 in OH (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,340 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,892
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3011 Bainbridge Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-8%)	4mo	$159,900	$133	65
4257 Claridge Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-9%)	1mo	$177,300	$149	63
2521 Bainbridge Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+7%)	6mo	$160,000	$114	63
4576 Alderwood Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,328 (+2%)	1mo	$189,900	$143	63
4614 Deopham Green Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-1%)	3mo	$232,500	$179	62
2451 Redgate Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,229 (-6%)	5mo	$135,000	$110	62
3205 Redgate Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,179 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$157	55
1726 Lancaster Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,445 (+10%)	4mo	$210,000	$145	50
3425 Bentwillow Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-9%)	5mo	$204,900	$172	46
3990 Claridge Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,456 (+11%)	3mo	$225,000	$155	42
4226 Carlisle Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,144 (-12%)	6mo	$205,000	$179	37
4235 Patricia Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (+12%)	4mo	$213,500	$145	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,930
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $29,727
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44511

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,114/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3968 Staatz Dr Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1112	$1,650	$1.48	43d	1	0.31mi
2529 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,500	$0.89	43d	1	0.37mi
2433 Bainbridge Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	21d	1	0.46mi
2230 S Raccoon Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	1141	$1,135	$0.99	13d	1	0.59mi
2239 Woodland Trce Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,850	$1.71	43d	1	1.21mi
4494 Burkey Rd Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1596	$1,700	$1.07	43d	1	1.43mi
4661 New Hampshire Ct Austintown, OH	3.0	1.0–1.5	795	$1,325	$1.67	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $122,000 Active
3. 2020-03-13
   historical 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   This beautiful cape cod in Austintown is centrally located and just minutes away from Cornersburg and Canfield. Nothing to do but move right in, this home has been totally updated. Eat-In Kitchen with neutral decor, ceramic tile, fresh finishes and all new appliances. Totally Updated in 2019, the bathroom is gorgeous with subway tile, new lighting, vanity & commode. The First Floor, Over-sized, Master Bedroom has french doors onto the patio, large closet and beautiful wood floors. Rounding out this home is the very large second floor bedroom that boasts multiple closets. Sitting on just under an acre there is plenty of privacy and a great amount of space to entertain between the large deck and large yard. Updates include Roof(2016), Electrical panel(2017), Siding(2011), HWT(2019). This home also comes with an HMS Home Warranty.

4. 2020-03-12
   soldstatus $360,000
5. 2020-03-11
   soldstatus $120,000 Closed 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   This beautiful cape cod in Austintown is centrally located and just minutes away from Cornersburg and Canfield. Nothing to do but move right in, this home has been totally updated. Eat-In Kitchen with neutral decor, ceramic tile, fresh finishes and all new appliances. Totally Updated in 2019, the bathroom is gorgeous with subway tile, new lighting, vanity & commode. The First Floor, Over-sized, Master Bedroom has french doors onto the patio, large closet and beautiful wood floors. Rounding out this home is the very large second floor bedroom that boasts multiple closets. Sitting on just under an acre there is plenty of privacy and a great amount of space to entertain between the large deck and large yard. Updates include Roof(2016), Electrical panel(2017), Siding(2011), HWT(2019). This home also comes with an HMS Home Warranty.

6. 2020-03-05
   status Pending 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   This beautiful cape cod in Austintown is centrally located and just minutes away from Cornersburg and Canfield. Nothing to do but move right in, this home has been totally updated. Eat-In Kitchen with neutral decor, ceramic tile, fresh finishes and all new appliances. Totally Updated in 2019, the bathroom is gorgeous with subway tile, new lighting, vanity & commode. The First Floor, Over-sized, Master Bedroom has french doors onto the patio, large closet and beautiful wood floors. Rounding out this home is the very large second floor bedroom that boasts multiple closets. Sitting on just under an acre there is plenty of privacy and a great amount of space to entertain between the large deck and large yard. Updates include Roof(2016), Electrical panel(2017), Siding(2011), HWT(2019). This home also comes with an HMS Home Warranty.

7. 2020-01-31
   historical Contingent 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   This beautiful cape cod in Austintown is centrally located and just minutes away from Cornersburg and Canfield. Nothing to do but move right in, this home has been totally updated. Eat-In Kitchen with neutral decor, ceramic tile, fresh finishes and all new appliances. Totally Updated in 2019, the bathroom is gorgeous with subway tile, new lighting, vanity & commode. The First Floor, Over-sized, Master Bedroom has french doors onto the patio, large closet and beautiful wood floors. Rounding out this home is the very large second floor bedroom that boasts multiple closets. Sitting on just under an acre there is plenty of privacy and a great amount of space to entertain between the large deck and large yard. Updates include Roof(2016), Electrical panel(2017), Siding(2011), HWT(2019). This home also comes with an HMS Home Warranty.

8. 2020-01-13
   listed $120,000 Active 845-char remark

   Show marketing remark (845 chars)

   This beautiful cape cod in Austintown is centrally located and just minutes away from Cornersburg and Canfield. Nothing to do but move right in, this home has been totally updated. Eat-In Kitchen with neutral decor, ceramic tile, fresh finishes and all new appliances. Totally Updated in 2019, the bathroom is gorgeous with subway tile, new lighting, vanity & commode. The First Floor, Over-sized, Master Bedroom has french doors onto the patio, large closet and beautiful wood floors. Rounding out this home is the very large second floor bedroom that boasts multiple closets. Sitting on just under an acre there is plenty of privacy and a great amount of space to entertain between the large deck and large yard. Updates include Roof(2016), Electrical panel(2017), Siding(2011), HWT(2019). This home also comes with an HMS Home Warranty.

9. 2009-09-30
   soldstatus $42,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,114 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$2,114
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,467
• − Management: −$1,467
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $2,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$550
• After-tax cash flow: $3,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austintown Local Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904829
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,129
• Composite: 50.99/100
• National rank: #1778
• State rank: #290 of 656 in OH

Livability — Austintown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #322
• US rank: #5290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austintown, OH
• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 27,740
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 18,909
• Household income: $56,880
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.81%
• Current HPI: 283.9088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+187.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-20 Listed $122,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-03-13 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2020-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-11 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-03-05 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2020-01-31 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2020-01-13 Listed $120,000 MLSNOW
• 2009-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $42,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,114 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.