1370 Old Graysville Rd · Dayton, TN 37321

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1943 0.60 ac lot $72/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for a great investment opportunity or a good fixer-upper, don't miss this listing! This home sits on a great lot with over half an acre and conveniently located just off Old Graysville Rd. It is close to both Downtown Dayton and the shops and restaurants on Highway 27. With its large front yard area and kitchen, living room, three bedrooms, and one full bathroom, this property is full of potential. Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Half an acre
• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1943

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN DAYTON
• CLOSE TO SHOPS AND RESTAURANTS
• LARGE FRONT YARD AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 2.5% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#143 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rhea County (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #38 of 139 in TN (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 198 units permitted in Rhea County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $70k implies a 677% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.31%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,452
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -57.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $15,952
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $49,089
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37321

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $424/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $448	+0% $428	+5% $408	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $382	+0% $428	+5% $474	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $463	-0.5pp $446	base $428	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $69,900 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-04-17
   price $74,900 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   If you're looking for a great investment opportunity or a good fixer-upper, don't miss this listing! This home sits on a great lot with over half an acre and conveniently located just off Old Graysville Rd. It is close to both Downtown Dayton and the shops and restaurants on Highway 27. With its large front yard area and kitchen, living room, three bedrooms, and one full bathroom, this property is full of potential. Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

5. 2026-04-17
   price $74,900 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   If you're looking for a great investment opportunity or a good fixer-upper, don't miss this listing! This home sits on a great lot with over half an acre and conveniently located just off Old Graysville Rd. It is close to both Downtown Dayton and the shops and restaurants on Highway 27. With its large front yard area and kitchen, living room, three bedrooms, and one full bathroom, this property is full of potential. Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

6. 2026-03-27
   listed $79,000 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   If you're looking for a great investment opportunity or a good fixer-upper, don't miss this listing! This home sits on a great lot with over half an acre and conveniently located just off Old Graysville Rd. It is close to both Downtown Dayton and the shops and restaurants on Highway 27. With its large front yard area and kitchen, living room, three bedrooms, and one full bathroom, this property is full of potential. Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

7. 2026-03-27
   listed $79,000 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   If you're looking for a great investment opportunity or a good fixer-upper, don't miss this listing! This home sits on a great lot with over half an acre and conveniently located just off Old Graysville Rd. It is close to both Downtown Dayton and the shops and restaurants on Highway 27. With its large front yard area and kitchen, living room, three bedrooms, and one full bathroom, this property is full of potential. Schedule your showing today before it's gone!

8. 2000-02-23
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $424 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$424
• − Insurance: −$1,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,029
• After-tax cash flow: $4,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rhea County
• NCES district ID: 4703510
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,059
• Composite: 27.67/100
• National rank: #6917
• State rank: #38 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #12896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,670
• Population (ZIP): 20,670

Population outlook (Rhea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,187 people
• By 2030: 33,482 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 33,786 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 33,730 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 33,603 · +1.3%
• By 2100: 33,312 · +0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rhea

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.0% · R 82.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+61.3 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.20%
• Current HPI: 323.7125
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+732.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $74,900 RCAOR
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $74,900 GCAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $79,000 GCAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $79,000 RCAOR
• 2000-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $424 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.