3522 Marble Loop · Harrisonburg, VA 22801

$273,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,220 sqft · Townhouse

Built 2026 871 sqft lot Est $264k · at est. $145/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

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Key facts

• $145 HOA
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Harrisonburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#24 in VA, #666 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Valley Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 229 students, 66% FRL); Wilbur S. Pence Middle (math 46% / reading 64%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 668 students, 39% FRL); Turner Ashby High (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A, #60 of 319 statewide, top 19%, 994 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 32% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $231,507 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3333 Marble Loop	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,220 (0%)	1mo	$264,000	$216	96
3384 Marble Loop	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,220 (0%)	6mo	$249,990	$205	95
3358 Marble Loop	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,220 (0%)	6mo	$256,990	$211	94
3359 Obsidian Ter	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+12%)	1mo	$384,000	$280	75
3021 Obsidian Ter	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+10%)	4mo	$322,985	$240	73
3360 Obsidian Ter	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+10%)	8mo	$329,990	$246	72
3322 Debbie Ct	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,320 (+8%)	2mo	$287,500	$218	71
3032 Obsidian Ter	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+12%)	6mo	$370,685	$271	69
3313 Impressions Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,334 (+9%)	3mo	$265,000	$199	67
324 Diana Ct	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+6%)	6mo	$275,000	$212	66
3200 Joppa Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+9%)	5mo	$259,900	$195	57
3211 Joppa Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	7mo	$259,900	$193	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,233
• Equity at exit: $40,853

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-22,575
• Equity at exit: $23,690

Cash invested: $76,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22801

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $243,664

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-115	+0% $-210	+5% $-304	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-301	+0% $-210	+5% $-118	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-140	base $-210	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,498
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3407 Granite Rd , VA	3.0	2.5	1220	$2,250	$1.84	44d	1	0.05mi
2511 Millwood Loop Harrisonburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1150	$1,495	$1.30	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-08
   listed $273,990
2. 2026-02-08
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$7,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,178
• Composite: 47.58/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #77 of 131 in VA

Livability — Harrisonburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #666

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrisonburg City · 70,357 people
• City population: 70,357
• Metro: Harrisonburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 39,983
• Household income: $72,067
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2712.0

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,435 people
• By 2030: 85,223 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 87,667 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 88,550 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 90,331 · +8.3%
• By 2100: 85,122 · +2.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 30.9% · R 68.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.01%
• Current HPI: 166.3265
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.48%
• Metro: Harrisonburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Delisted — HRAR
• 2026-02-08 Listed $273,990 HRAR