1022 Carlisle Ave · Louisville, KY 40215

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,915 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 1949 5,680 sqft lot Est $203k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom 1 1/2 bath home with a fenced in yard and a 1 car garage! This home has 2 bedrooms on the main floor and the entire upstairs is a third bedroom. There is an additional room on the lower level that could be used as a dining room or office area. The back yard is fenced in and has a deck, perfect for entertaining, as well as a hot tub. The one car garage in the back provides off street parking in addition to the driveway. Don't miss out on this home - schedule a private showing today!

Key facts

• 5,680 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: HH THORNBERRY
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water and sewer (not explicitly stated; only electricity is confirmed)
• Home design: Single family residence; Traditional style; 1 story; Built in 1949; Living area spans above and below grade (finished space both levels)
• Construction: Vinyl siding and wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Hot tub; Full yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Second-floor breakfast room
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary/one bedroom on the first floor; Remaining bedrooms on first floor (no upper-floor bedrooms listed)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Half bathroom located in the basement; One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; 7 closets; Finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,936/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $155k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.28%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3420 Vetter Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,883 (-2%)	4mo	$219,900	$117	73
802 Longfield Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,050 (+7%)	9mo	$260,000	$127	61
1119 Hathaway Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,638 (-14%)	4mo	$70,000	$43	56
3712 Kahlert Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,104 (+10%)	6mo	$218,000	$104	54
1571 Clara Ave	0.74mi	4/1.0	1,796 (-6%)	8mo	$169,900	$95	45
1302 Weyler Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,843 (-4%)	6mo	$170,000	$92	44
564 Longfield Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,128 (+11%)	10mo	$199,000	$94	43
4614 Southcrest Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,126 (+11%)	10mo	$225,000	$106	40
4344 S 3rd St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (-9%)	6mo	$172,000	$99	40
4103 Southern Pkwy	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-14%)	7mo	$240,000	$146	35
3936 Southern Pkwy	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,696 (-11%)	9mo	$205,000	$121	34
4613 N Rutland Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,638 (-14%)	8mo	$190,000	$116	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,070
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $71,274
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
925 W Evelyn Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1520	$1,650	$1.09	23d	1	0.25mi
4010 Taylor Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	16d	1	0.64mi
4513 S 6th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1581	$2,650	$1.68	23d	1	0.67mi
4007 Southern Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,395	$0.93	3d	1	0.70mi
310 W Kenton St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,350	$1.04	23d	1	0.77mi
3102 Grant Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,595	$1.00	23d	1	1.04mi
2718 S 5th St Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	2196	$1,600	$0.73	11d	1	1.28mi
1505 Homeview Dr Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	1949	$1,850	$0.95	16d	1	1.28mi
2718 S 3rd St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	11d	1	1.36mi
1147 Lincoln Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1323	$1,295	$0.98	3d	1	1.38mi
2711 S 3rd St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	11d	1	1.40mi
519 Forum Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,600	$0.95	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2026-02-25
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-02-10
   listed $155,000 Active
5. 2020-03-16
   soldstatus $76,500
6. 2020-03-13
   soldstatus $76,500 Closed 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Three bedroom 1 1/2 bath home with a fenced in yard and a 1 car garage! This home has 2 bedrooms on the main floor and the entire upstairs is a third bedroom. There is an additional room on the lower level that could be used as a dining room or office area. The back yard is fenced in and has a deck, perfect for entertaining, as well as a hot tub. The one car garage in the back provides off street parking in addition to the driveway. Don't miss out on this home - schedule a private showing today!

7. 2020-03-04
   status Pending 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Three bedroom 1 1/2 bath home with a fenced in yard and a 1 car garage! This home has 2 bedrooms on the main floor and the entire upstairs is a third bedroom. There is an additional room on the lower level that could be used as a dining room or office area. The back yard is fenced in and has a deck, perfect for entertaining, as well as a hot tub. The one car garage in the back provides off street parking in addition to the driveway. Don't miss out on this home - schedule a private showing today!

8. 2020-01-14
   price $99,000 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Three bedroom 1 1/2 bath home with a fenced in yard and a 1 car garage! This home has 2 bedrooms on the main floor and the entire upstairs is a third bedroom. There is an additional room on the lower level that could be used as a dining room or office area. The back yard is fenced in and has a deck, perfect for entertaining, as well as a hot tub. The one car garage in the back provides off street parking in addition to the driveway. Don't miss out on this home - schedule a private showing today!

9. 2020-01-14
   price $105,000 500-char remark

   Show marketing remark (500 chars)

   Three bedroom 1 1/2 bath home with a fenced in yard and a 1 car garage! This home has 2 bedrooms on the main floor and the entire upstairs is a third bedroom. There is an additional room on the lower level that could be used as a dining room or office area. The back yard is fenced in and has a deck, perfect for entertaining, as well as a hot tub. The one car garage in the back provides off street parking in addition to the driveway. Don't miss out on this home - schedule a private showing today!

10. 2020-01-14
    listed $110,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Three bedroom 1 1/2 bath home with a fenced in yard and a 1 car garage! This home has 2 bedrooms on the main floor and the entire upstairs is a third bedroom. There is an additional room on the lower level that could be used as a dining room or office area. The back yard is fenced in and has a deck, perfect for entertaining, as well as a hot tub. The one car garage in the back provides off street parking in addition to the driveway. Don't miss out on this home - schedule a private showing today!

11. 2002-06-11
    soldstatus $87,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    IMMACULATE HOME! HUGE DORMER ROOM UPSTAIRS! FULL FINISHED BASEMENT WITH 2ND FULL BATH. 2 DECKS - 1 COVERED. FENCED YARD. DRIVEWAY. VINYL EXTERIOR. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY. *NOTE SQUARE FOOTAGE! PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP HERE!

12. 2002-04-19
    listed $87,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    IMMACULATE HOME! HUGE DORMER ROOM UPSTAIRS! FULL FINISHED BASEMENT WITH 2ND FULL BATH. 2 DECKS - 1 COVERED. FENCED YARD. DRIVEWAY. VINYL EXTERIOR. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY. *NOTE SQUARE FOOTAGE! PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP HERE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$941
• After-tax cash flow: $5,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,532
• Household income: $43,725
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.35%
• Current HPI: 227.8248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.16%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+76.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-25 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $155,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2020-03-13 Sold (MLS) $76,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-03-04 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-01-14 Listed $110,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-01-14 Price Changed $105,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-01-14 Price Changed $99,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2002-06-11 Sold (MLS) $87,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2002-04-19 Listed $87,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.