142 Covey Run · Madison, MS 39110

$425,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 2006 0.28 ac lot $158/sqft · 9% below area Est $536k · 21% under $96/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home located in the popular Lake Caroline community, known for its lake, walking trails, pools, playgrounds, tennis courts, golf course, and the Mermaid Café. This home offers 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with a study featuring beautiful built-in bookshelves and a built-in workstation. A welcoming front porch and attractive landscaping create an inviting first impression. Inside, you'll find a beautiful foyer, formal dining room with chair rail molding, a kitchen with an eating area, breakfast bar, granite countertops, pantry, and a comfortable living area. The downstairs primary suite includes dual vanities, a tiled shower, Jacuzzi tub, and walk-in closet, while decorative railing leads upstairs to generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living spaces include two decks, a pergola, and a double-sided fireplace, offering great flexibility for relaxing or gathering with friends and family. Enjoy the space and amenities of Lake Caroline in a home designed for everyday living. Note: Some photos virtually staged.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Tennis courts
• Pools

Tags

• LAKE CAROLINE COMMUNITY
• WALKING TRAILS
• POOLS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• TENNIS COURTS
• GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mannsdale Elementary (633 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,062 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $535,986
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -20.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Covey Run	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,395 (-11%)	1mo	$394,000	$165	67
363 Wellstone Pl	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,700 (+0%)	1mo	$569,000	$211	67
822 Thornberry Rdg	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,625 (-2%)	2mo	$582,750	$222	66
358 Wellstone Pl	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,689 (-0%)	1mo	$585,000	$218	65
107 Camden Lake Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,612 (-3%)	1mo	$459,900	$176	65
100 Camden Vale	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,464 (-8%)	1mo	$479,000	$194	55
828 Thornberry Rdg	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,411 (-10%)	1mo	$533,900	$221	50
366 Wellstone Pl	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,450 (-9%)	2mo	$540,000	$220	46
135 Paylors Way	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,482 (-8%)	2mo	$465,000	$187	44
123 Paylors Way	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,427 (-10%)	1mo	$485,000	$200	43
326 Wellstone Pl	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,398 (-11%)	1mo	$489,000	$204	41
384 Wellstone Pl	0.61mi	4/5.0 (-1)	2,301 (-14%)	1mo	$506,000	$220	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-94,178
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-118,075
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,483/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,429

Max offer price $358,265

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-257	+0% $-378	+5% $-498	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-611	-5% $-494	+0% $-378	+5% $-261	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-270	base $-378	+0.5pp $-488	+1.0pp $-600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Buckeye Dr Madison, MS	4.0	3.5	2400	$2,650	$1.10	46d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $425,000 Pending 145 DOM
2. 2026-04-22
   price $425,000 1041-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

   Spacious home located in the popular Lake Caroline community, known for its lake, walking trails, pools, playgrounds, tennis courts, golf course, and the Mermaid Café. This home offers 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with a study featuring beautiful built-in bookshelves and a built-in workstation. A welcoming front porch and attractive landscaping create an inviting first impression. Inside, you'll find a beautiful foyer, formal dining room with chair rail molding, a kitchen with an eating area, breakfast bar, granite countertops, pantry, and a comfortable living area. The downstairs primary suite includes dual vanities, a tiled shower, Jacuzzi tub, and walk-in closet, while decorative railing leads upstairs to generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living spaces include two decks, a pergola, and a double-sided fireplace, offering great flexibility for relaxing or gathering with friends and family. Enjoy the space and amenities of Lake Caroline in a home designed for everyday living. Note: Some photos virtually staged.

3. 2026-01-04
   listed $430,000 Active 1041-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

   Spacious home located in the popular Lake Caroline community, known for its lake, walking trails, pools, playgrounds, tennis courts, golf course, and the Mermaid Café. This home offers 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with a study featuring beautiful built-in bookshelves and a built-in workstation. A welcoming front porch and attractive landscaping create an inviting first impression. Inside, you'll find a beautiful foyer, formal dining room with chair rail molding, a kitchen with an eating area, breakfast bar, granite countertops, pantry, and a comfortable living area. The downstairs primary suite includes dual vanities, a tiled shower, Jacuzzi tub, and walk-in closet, while decorative railing leads upstairs to generously sized bedrooms. Outdoor living spaces include two decks, a pergola, and a double-sided fireplace, offering great flexibility for relaxing or gathering with friends and family. Enjoy the space and amenities of Lake Caroline in a home designed for everyday living. Note: Some photos virtually staged.

4. 2021-10-08
   historical
5. 2021-10-08
   historical
6. 2020-12-30
   soldstatus
7. 2013-10-21
   soldstatus
8. 2013-10-18
   soldstatus
9. 2013-07-15
   listed $315,000
10. 2012-08-10
    listed $315,000
11. 2007-05-21
    soldstatus
12. 2007-05-11
    soldstatus
13. 2006-12-01
    listed $290,900
14. 2006-07-27
    listed $290,900
15. 2005-02-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,483 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,358 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$874/yr (+$73/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$2,483
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,833
• − Management: −$2,833
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$12,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+46.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $425,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-04 Listed $430,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-18 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-07-15 Listed $315,000 MLSU
• 2012-08-10 Listed $315,000 MLSU
• 2007-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-12-01 Listed $290,900 MLSU
• 2006-07-27 Listed $290,900 MLSU
• 2005-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,483 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.