Dawson Plan · White Knoll, SC 29073

$235,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home includes three bedrooms and two-and-one-half bathrooms. It has a covered front porch next to an attached one-car garage. Next to the kitchen and its walk-in pantry, the great room leads into a breakfast nook. You can add a fireplace in the living room and another covered porch off the eat-in area. Upstairs, the primary bedroom connects to a walk-in closet and the primary bathroom, which comes with a shower and linen closet but can be altered. Down the hall are two more bedrooms, a second bathroom, and a laundry room.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Breakfast nook
• Second bathroom

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• FIREPLACE IN LIVING ROOM
• SECOND BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $233,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home (Dawson)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1620 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Active listing (Plan: Dawson)

🏗️ New construction. The $235,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,640.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,348 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
460 Walking Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,527 (-6%)	22mo	$262,000	$172	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,439
• Equity at exit: $41,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,287
• Equity at exit: $24,092

Cash invested: $78,019 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,180/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $235,886

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,660
• Closing costs: $8,359
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2237 Trakand Dr Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1962	$1,975	$1.01	2d	1	0.25mi
307 Savannah Hills Dr Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1612	$1,985	$1.23	23d	1	0.31mi
473 Walking Ln Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1835	$2,100	$1.14	23d	1	0.56mi
432 Cape Jasmine Way Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,049	$1.28	3d	1	0.89mi
123 Brevard Pkwy Lexington, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,275	$1.16	2d	1	1.05mi
600 Fern Hall Dr Lexington, SC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1071	$1,277	$1.19	2d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,608
• − Property taxes: −$4,180
• − Insurance: −$1,393
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$8,106
• Taxable loss: −$8,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — White Knoll

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Knoll, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 51,471
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B