28 Cedar Ridge Dr · Springs, NY 11937

$1,595,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 2004 0.47 ac lot $798/sqft · 12% below area Est $1817k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture Perfect in Springs Moments from Bay Beaches and 5 minutes from East Hampton Village, this traditional home is ready for immediate luxury living in the Hamptons. Sited on a shy half-acre parcel on a quiet street, the home has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2,000 +/- SF floorplan plus an unfinished lower level awaiting your finishing touches. Interiors are bright and welcoming with beautiful hardwood floors and multiple access points to the outdoors. Perfect for contemporary living with a large open-concept great room with an eat-in kitchen and living room anchored by a fireplace. Completing the first level are a powder room and a laundry room. The well-sized ensuite primary has a cathedral ceiling and three additional bedrooms share a full bath. Outdoors, enjoy the best of the Hamptons lifestyle with a sunny pool, space for sun lounging, and a patio for dining al fresco - all surrounded by mature, planted trees for privacy. Just beyond the home, find waterfront dining, bay baches, marinas, nature trails and life in East Hampton Village just 5 minutes away.

Key facts

• Shy half-acre parcel
• Eat-in kitchen
• Bright interiors

Tags

• SHY HALF-ACRE PARCEL
• UNFINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• BRIGHT INTERIORS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($103k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.55M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,160/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $447k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $1.59M implies a 1495% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,547,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.05%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,816,554
• List price: $1,595,000
• Delta: -12.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Cedar Ridge Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,000 (0%)	1mo	$1,500,000	$750	100
34 Harbor Blvd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (0%)	11mo	$1,400,000	$700	70
18 Glade Rd	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,220 (+11%)	1mo	$1,350,000	$608	55
10 Glade Rd	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,097 (+5%)	13mo	$1,250,000	$596	52
55 Longwoods Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	2mo	$2,175,000	$1,208	46
14 Hill Side Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,211 (+10%)	6mo	$2,160,000	$977	44
685 Springs Fireplace Rd	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,263 (+13%)	3mo	$1,950,000	$862	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $409,784
• Equity at exit: $237,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $1,615,521
• Equity at exit: $137,906

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax from tax record: −$690 /mo · $8,284/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,864
• Net cashflow: $8,577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,303

Max offer price $1,595,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Woodbine Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1496	$65,000	$43.45	44d	1	0.42mi
20 Howard St East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$75,000	$37.50	22d	1	0.65mi
289 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$45,600	$28.50	44d	1	0.83mi
3 Birdie Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	1d	1	1.04mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	44d	1	1.42mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1071-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1071 chars)

   Picture Perfect in Springs Moments from Bay Beaches and 5 minutes from East Hampton Village, this traditional home is ready for immediate luxury living in the Hamptons. Sited on a shy half-acre parcel on a quiet street, the home has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2,000 +/- SF floorplan plus an unfinished lower level awaiting your finishing touches. Interiors are bright and welcoming with beautiful hardwood floors and multiple access points to the outdoors. Perfect for contemporary living with a large open-concept great room with an eat-in kitchen and living room anchored by a fireplace. Completing the first level are a powder room and a laundry room. The well-sized ensuite primary has a cathedral ceiling and three additional bedrooms share a full bath. Outdoors, enjoy the best of the Hamptons lifestyle with a sunny pool, space for sun lounging, and a patio for dining al fresco - all surrounded by mature, planted trees for privacy. Just beyond the home, find waterfront dining, bay baches, marinas, nature trails and life in East Hampton Village just 5 minutes away.

2. 2026-03-19
   listed $1,595,000 Active 1071-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1071 chars)

   Picture Perfect in Springs Moments from Bay Beaches and 5 minutes from East Hampton Village, this traditional home is ready for immediate luxury living in the Hamptons. Sited on a shy half-acre parcel on a quiet street, the home has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2,000 +/- SF floorplan plus an unfinished lower level awaiting your finishing touches. Interiors are bright and welcoming with beautiful hardwood floors and multiple access points to the outdoors. Perfect for contemporary living with a large open-concept great room with an eat-in kitchen and living room anchored by a fireplace. Completing the first level are a powder room and a laundry room. The well-sized ensuite primary has a cathedral ceiling and three additional bedrooms share a full bath. Outdoors, enjoy the best of the Hamptons lifestyle with a sunny pool, space for sun lounging, and a patio for dining al fresco - all surrounded by mature, planted trees for privacy. Just beyond the home, find waterfront dining, bay baches, marinas, nature trails and life in East Hampton Village just 5 minutes away.

3. 2001-07-10
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,284 · $690/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,620 · $1,468/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,336/yr (+$778/mo · 112.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $277,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$8,284
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,234
• − Management: −$22,234
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable income: $81,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,548
• After-tax cash flow: $83,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1495.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,284 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.