12 Birchwood Dr · Peru, NY 12972

$12,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1964

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nice ranch home very close to k-12 school & amp; very close walking distance to town

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Close to k-12 school
• Built 1964

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• CLOSE TO K-12 SCHOOL
• WALKING DISTANCE TO TOWN

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $12,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$286,560) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $923 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• Cap rate 98.6% vs local median 2.5% in Peru — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#390 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Peru Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #483 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($83 loan paydown + $988 appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $12,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 98.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 329.71%
• DSCR: 15.67
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,560
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Maiden Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+1%)	11mo	$289,900	$199	76
24 Holden Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (-13%)	11mo	$215,000	$171	62
16 N Bend St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	6mo	$221,000	$170	57
23 Jenkins St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,310 (-9%)	12mo	$210,000	$160	56
814 Bear Swamp Rd	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,380 (-4%)	5mo	$310,000	$225	55
0 Washington St Lot 24	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	2mo	$400,000	$250	54
8 Locust Dr Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-15%)	2mo	$250,000	$204	53
3 Rounds Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (-1%)	21mo	$274,000	$191	47
0 Washington St Lot 32	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+15%)	7mo	$419,500	$254	44
232 Route 22b	0.55mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,529 (+6%)	14mo	$345,000	$226	43
34 Mannix Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,312 (-9%)	18mo	$185,000	$141	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.03×
• Total profit: $63,943
• Equity at exit: $9,311

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 43.23×
• Total profit: $141,889
• Equity at exit: $18,670

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12972

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $105

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $12,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $12,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   remarks 84-char remark
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $12,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $11,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,778
• After-tax cash flow: $8,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peru Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622830
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,762
• Composite: 36.62/100
• National rank: #4621
• State rank: #483 of 590 in NY

Livability — Peru

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #6741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peru, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,063

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,791 people
• By 2030: 76,848 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 71,579 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 66,471 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 57,361 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 47,232 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Slovak 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.9% · R 51.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+5.2 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+25.6 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.24%
• Current HPI: 276.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-85.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $12,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,173 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.