1658 Evergreen Ln E · Lakeside, FL 32068

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $284k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1982
• Listed 115 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Faces east
• Construction: Brick and block construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Private in-ground pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in kitchen appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $113k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.39%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,428
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 Pinewood Blvd N	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,262 (-6%)	4mo	$226,500	$179	77
2715 Pinewood Blvd N	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	2mo	$275,000	$220	75
3071 Wavering Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-8%)	1mo	$259,100	$210	71
1652 E Evergreen Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-13%)	7mo	$259,000	$221	70
1626 Sandy Hollow Loop	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,317 (-2%)	6mo	$278,000	$211	67
1653 Mary Beth Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-13%)	1mo	$275,000	$234	58
1672 Sandy Hollow Loop	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	4mo	$285,000	$228	55
2772 Commanche Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	5mo	$218,000	$182	51
1784 Northglen Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+14%)	7mo	$280,000	$182	50
1292 Eagle Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	7mo	$230,000	$184	50
1749 Mickey Way	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+12%)	3mo	$318,000	$211	48
1722 Mickey Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+12%)	4mo	$329,690	$218	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,278
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $45,464
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,117/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $570	-5% $524	+0% $477	+5% $430	+10% $384
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $402	+0% $477	+5% $552	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $519	base $477	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1809 Dartmouth Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,750	$1.03	24d	1	0.14mi
2718 Pinewood Blvd N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,739	$1.59	3d	1	0.26mi
1559 Irishwood Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,800	$1.24	20d	1	0.31mi
3255 Hammock Cove Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	24d	1	0.37mi
1752 Glen Laurel Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	24d	1	0.47mi
2796 Kiowa Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,915	$1.50	2d	1	0.74mi
1338 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,905	$1.44	20d	1	0.76mi
1504 Pawnee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,795	$1.34	21d	1	0.88mi
2804 Canyon Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,824	$1.33	15d	1	0.99mi
2897 Gatling Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$1,650	$1.23	8d	1	1.08mi
3296 Isabella Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	4d	1	1.11mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 3296 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1714	$2,050	$1.20	24d	1	1.11mi
3296 Isabella Ct Unit 1 Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	3d	1	1.11mi
25 Knight Boxx Rd Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$1,863	$1.68	2d	18	1.13mi
1281 Independence Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,695	$1.56	24d	1	1.20mi
2942 Biloxi Trl Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,846	$1.05	8d	1	1.26mi
1248 Ticonderoga Trl Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,195	$1.30	8d	1	1.27mi
3223 Merganzer Trl Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,755	$1.52	24d	1	1.31mi
1333 Jefferson Ave Unit D Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,325	$1.44	24d	1	1.32mi
1330 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,250	$1.36	17d	1	1.32mi
1608 Twin Oak Dr W Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,845	$1.45	2d	1	1.32mi
1324 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	926	$1,245	$1.34	24d	1	1.35mi
1324 Jefferson Ave Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,245	$1.35	3d	1	1.35mi
1270 Ticonderoga Trl Unit C Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	24d	1	1.37mi
2995 Biloxi Trl Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,750	$1.23	5d	1	1.41mi
2716 Secret Harbor Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,695	$1.34	8d	1	1.43mi
2716 Secret Harbor Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,695	$1.22	5d	1	1.43mi
3248 Dowitcher Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    status Active
15. 2026-05-14
    historical
16. 2026-04-20
    price $174,900
17. 2026-02-13
    listed $184,900 Active
18. 2025-07-17
    status Pending 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

19. 2025-07-17
    status Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

20. 2025-07-17
    historical 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

21. 2025-07-17
    price $160,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

22. 2025-05-14
    historical
23. 2025-05-06
    status Pending 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

24. 2025-05-05
    listed $5,000 New
25. 2025-05-02
    listed $109,900 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Property sold ''as-is'' in current condition. No repairs, warranties, disclosures, or inspections provided by seller. All offers subject to lien holder(s) approval. Buyer proof of funds or pre-qual letter and addendum to contract is required. Submit all offers on Special Sales Contract with Rider. Needs TLC, not updated, needs electrical/plumbing work, water leak under foundation, foundation repairs required.

26. 2004-08-19
    soldstatus $113,000
27. 2004-08-13
    historical
28. 2004-08-12
    soldstatus $113,000
29. 2004-07-02
    listed $109,900
30. 1999-07-28
    soldstatus $71,000
31. 1992-09-24
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,117
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$770
• After-tax cash flow: $4,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+192.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $174,900 realMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $184,900 realMLS
• 2025-07-17 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $160,000 realMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-06 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $5,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $109,900 realMLS
• 2004-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-13 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2004-08-12 Sold (MLS) $113,000 realMLS
• 2004-07-02 Listed $109,900 realMLS
• 1999-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,117 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.