1002 El Granada Cir · Novato, CA 94949

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $370k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Enclosed porch
• Club house

Tags

• WHEELCHAIR RAMP
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• CLUB HOUSE
• POOL
• GUEST PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in Los Robles MHP (land lease: $1,105)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Covered parking; Off-street parking; Guest parking available
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a park; Updated/remodeled; Land lease community; Senior community
• Construction: Skirted with brick; Make/Manufacturer: Golden Heritage
• Exterior features: Porch ramp; Carport awning; Shed(s); Close to clubhouse; Irregular and regular shaped site; Storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in refrigerator; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop; Double oven; Ceramic countertops; Pantry cabinet and pantry closet; Dining bar
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Low-flow showers and low-flow toilets; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp and grab bars; Carbon monoxide detector; Double-strapped water heater; Updated/remodeled condition; Screened room; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $295k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $295k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.34%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 Seville Way	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	6mo	$385,000	$267	87
502 Vera Cruz Ave	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	14mo	$332,000	$231	84
708 Seville Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-5%)	5mo	$351,000	$252	84
410 San Paulo Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	15mo	$242,775	$169	81
313 San Sebastian Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	14mo	$170,000	$118	79
209 Barcelona Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+5%)	13mo	$400,000	$260	77
524 Vera Cruz Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-7%)	12mo	$405,000	$296	75
713 Seville Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	23mo	$215,000	$149	74
3 Oceano Pl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	11mo	$340,000	$253	72
805 Las Palmas	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-12%)	6mo	$420,000	$324	71
311 San Sebastian Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	15mo	$358,600	$267	68
113 Ensenada Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	23mo	$260,000	$193	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,888
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $32,984
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94949

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $984	-5% $882	+0% $780	+5% $678	+10% $576
Rent	-10% $498	-5% $639	+0% $780	+5% $921	+10% $1,062
Rate	-1.0pp $929	-0.5pp $855	base $780	+0.5pp $704	+1.0pp $626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1125	$2,738	$2.43	2d	1	0.42mi
450 Entrada Dr Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,900	$2.83	10d	1	0.51mi
235 Posada del Sol Novato, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,225	$2.69	2d	1	0.52mi
108 Ignacio Valley Cir Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1801	$4,600	$2.55	18d	1	0.93mi
98 Gann Way Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1428	$3,950	$2.77	44d	1	1.02mi
75 Gann Way Novato, CA	3.0	2.5	1822	$5,000	$2.74	15d	1	1.04mi
1033 Susan Way Novato, CA	3.0	3.0	1813	$4,250	$2.34	24d	1	1.23mi
301 Capetown Ct Novato, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$3,400	$2.57	44d	1	1.28mi
9 Quince Ct Novato, CA	3.0	2.0	1566	$4,695	$3.00	44d	1	1.30mi
130 Pelican Ln Novato, CA	2.0	2.5	1674	$3,925	$2.34	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $295,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,426
• − Management: −$3,426
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $4,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $8,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,787
• Household income: $120,758
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 16% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -670.06%
• Current HPI: 299.6555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+241.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $295,000 BAREIS
• 2003-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $294 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.