825 N Hillview Pl · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1973 0.95 ac lot $133/sqft · 36% below area Est $283k · 26% under $243/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the amenity-filled Hemlock Farms community, this peaceful country retreat offers the perfect blend of privacy, comfort, and convenience. Backing up to hundreds of acres of state land, you'll enjoy a truly secluded setting with wooded views and direct access to nature right from your backyard. This inviting home features 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a bright open floor plan connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas -- ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Sliding glass doors lead out to the spacious front deck, creating the perfect space for relaxing, hosting guests, or enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Residents of Hemlock Farms enjoy access to outsta

Key facts

• Community center
• Wooded views
• Spacious front deck

Tags

• BACKING UP TO STATE LAND
• WOODED VIEWS
• DIRECT ACCESS TO NATURE
• SPACIOUS FRONT DECK
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• COMMUNITY CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Annual association fee (annually); One-time association fee; Monthly equivalent association fee provided; Association amenities include: pool (indoor and outdoor access), clubhouse, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, sport court, golf course access, playground, park, picnic area, beach access and rights, dog park, maintenance, snow removal, security, and gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Paved, private parking
• Security: Gated community with security gate and guard
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Has a view
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built on a 0.95-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered, screened porch; Deck; Wooded lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Basement: full, unfinished block
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $203k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.29%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,594
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -26.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Forest Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+11%)	4mo	$365,900	$211	64
800 Dogwood Ct W	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+6%)	11mo	$295,000	$178	61
106 Lakeview Ter	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,543 (-2%)	24mo	$225,000	$146	59
101 Tupelo Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	11mo	$333,000	$217	58
813 Dogwood Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-9%)	10mo	$215,000	$151	54
800 Lakeview Place Pl	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,396 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$165	54
125 Lone Pine Bay Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	22mo	$300,000	$208	43
116 Blackbirch Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,734 (+11%)	8mo	$215,000	$124	43
106 Basswood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+15%)	10mo	$270,000	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $180,144
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $478,903
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,136/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$243
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,038

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,156	-5% $1,097	+0% $1,038	+5% $979	+10% $920
Rent	-10% $766	-5% $902	+0% $1,038	+5% $1,174	+10% $1,311
Rate	-1.0pp $1,143	-0.5pp $1,091	base $1,038	+0.5pp $984	+1.0pp $929

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	1d	1	0.68mi
313 Forest Dr Blooming Grove, PA	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	1d	1	0.84mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $243 · $2,916/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $209,000 Active 1034-char remark
16. 2025-10-23
    status Pending
17. 2025-08-21
    price $209,000
18. 2025-07-01
    listed $239,000 Active
19. 2003-06-09
    soldstatus $143,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,136 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,219 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,136
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − HOA: −$2,916
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $9,892
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,374
• After-tax cash flow: $10,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+46.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $209,000 PWMLS
• 2025-10-23 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $209,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $239,000 PWMLS
• 2003-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,136 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.