2888 Oleander St Unit C4 · St. James City, FL 33956

$305,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · Condo public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1981 $750/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

Key facts

• Your own dock
• Covered parking
• Gulf access

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• COVERED PARKING
• POOL
• BOAT STORAGE
• YOUR OWN DOCK
• GULF ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (call) — maximum 1 pet up to 30 lbs
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; HOA covers insurance, irrigation water, grounds maintenance, pest control, sewer, and trash; Community amenities include pool and storage; Community of 32 units; Community features: boat facilities, condo-hotel community, near hotel/motel

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Detached carport; 1 covered space; 1 carport space; One assigned space
• Security: High impact doors
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Private sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Entry level: 2; Resale; Faces west
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Security / high impact doors; Storage; Balcony; Screened porch; Community pool; Canal access; Paved road; East exposure; Has view; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 2
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Living/dining room; Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s); Shower only; Separate shower; Window treatments; Sliding windows; Window coverings; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $305k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.81%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-13,188
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $37,403
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,695/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$750
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,024
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,170

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $729	-5% $643	+0% $556	+5% $470	+10% $384
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $364	+0% $556	+5% $749	+10% $941
Rate	-1.0pp $710	-0.5pp $634	base $556	+0.5pp $477	+1.0pp $397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.17mi
2744 Sanderling Ct Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	841	$5,300	$6.30	24d	1	0.39mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.42mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.43mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $750 · $9,000/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $305,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $305,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-03-03
    price $305,000
11. 2025-11-20
    listed $339,000 Active
12. 2020-03-13
    soldstatus $190,000
13. 2020-03-11
    soldstatus $190,000 Closed 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

14. 2020-02-26
    status Pending 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

15. 2020-02-22
    price $199,900 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

16. 2019-10-30
    price $215,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

17. 2019-10-30
    status Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

18. 2019-10-28
    historical 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

19. 2019-10-25
    status Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

20. 2019-10-24
    historical 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

21. 2019-05-31
    status Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

22. 2019-05-30
    historical 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

23. 2019-03-13
    price $224,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

24. 2018-05-31
    listed $229,000 Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Second floor condo with view! Located in popular Fisherman's Wharf community. 2 bedroom, 2 bath- split bedroom floor plan. The condo has had many upgrades including ceramic tile throughout with cork underlay, bathroom vanities & sinks, new tile in master bath, tray ceiling in kitchen, new A/C and water heater in 2017. The community has a large heated pool, shuffle board, & fenced boat storage. Each condo has a boat dock! Don't hesitate to view this condo!

25. 2002-04-09
    soldstatus $199,000
26. 2002-03-29
    soldstatus $199,000
27. 1999-04-08
    soldstatus $97,000
28. 1985-07-01
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,695 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,695 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,695
• − Insurance: −$6,644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,679
• − Management: −$4,679
• − HOA: −$9,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable income: $2,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$681
• After-tax cash flow: $5,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+409.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $305,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $339,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-11 Sold (MLS) $190,000 FORTMLS
• 2020-02-26 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2020-02-22 Price Changed $199,900 FORTMLS
• 2019-10-30 Price Changed $215,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-10-30 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-10-28 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-10-25 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-10-24 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-05-31 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-05-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-03-13 Price Changed $224,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-05-31 Listed $229,000 FORTMLS
• 2002-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-29 Sold (MLS) $199,000 FORTMLS
• 1999-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,695 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.