16783 Country Roots Ave · Grangerland, TX 77302

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,573 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,519 sqft lot $159/sqft · at area comps Est $260k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN GRANGER PINES! Popular Split Plan Layout! 3 Beds and 2 Baths! Impressive Foyer Leads to Open Concept Living Room and Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Counter tops, Tile Backsplash, Upgraded 42 Inch Cabinets with Modern Cabinet Hardware & Large Walk-In Pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bathroom With Separate Tub & Shower, Two Sinks, & HUGE Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Covered Patio, Full Sod, & Sprinkler System Included! Tankless Water Heater and Smart Home Package Included! Awesome Community with Acres of preserved open space, natural creeks, walking trails, green space, and pocket parks! Estimated Completion Spring 2026.

Key facts

• Split plan layout
• Quartz counter tops
• Tile backsplash

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• UPGRADED CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $205,546 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,078
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -3.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16811 Country Roots Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+0%)	3mo	$259,990	$165	95
15427 Woody Haven Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-4%)	1mo	$249,990	$165	84
16787 Country Roots Ave	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+11%)	1mo	$274,990	$157	75
15623 Tranquil Pines St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+8%)	1mo	$254,990	$150	75
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+11%)	0mo	$279,990	$160	75
15557 Granger Green Way	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+11%)	1mo	$266,990	$153	69
16807 Country Roots Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+14%)	2mo	$277,990	$155	68
16891 Needlepoint Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+1%)	1mo	$224,900	$142	63
16097 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-0%)	4mo	$174,500	$111	62
16900 Hazelnut Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,721 (+9%)	2mo	$269,990	$157	59
16912 Hazelnut Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,721 (+9%)	4mo	$259,990	$151	56
14127 Carly Pines Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-11%)	6mo	$199,900	$143	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-49,873
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,540
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,255

Max offer price $227,156

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	1d	13	0.68mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	1.32mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $249,990 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $249,990 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $249,990 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN GRANGER PINES! Popular Split Plan Layout! 3 Beds and 2 Baths! Impressive Foyer Leads to Open Concept Living Room and Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Counter tops, Tile Backsplash, Upgraded 42 Inch Cabinets with Modern Cabinet Hardware & Large Walk-In Pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bathroom With Separate Tub & Shower, Two Sinks, & HUGE Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Covered Patio, Full Sod, & Sprinkler System Included! Tankless Water Heater and Smart Home Package Included! Awesome Community with Acres of preserved open space, natural creeks, walking trails, green space, and pocket parks! Estimated Completion Spring 2026.

15. 2026-04-06
    price $257,990 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN GRANGER PINES! Popular Split Plan Layout! 3 Beds and 2 Baths! Impressive Foyer Leads to Open Concept Living Room and Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Counter tops, Tile Backsplash, Upgraded 42 Inch Cabinets with Modern Cabinet Hardware & Large Walk-In Pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bathroom With Separate Tub & Shower, Two Sinks, & HUGE Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Covered Patio, Full Sod, & Sprinkler System Included! Tankless Water Heater and Smart Home Package Included! Awesome Community with Acres of preserved open space, natural creeks, walking trails, green space, and pocket parks! Estimated Completion Spring 2026.

16. 2026-03-21
    price $259,990 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN GRANGER PINES! Popular Split Plan Layout! 3 Beds and 2 Baths! Impressive Foyer Leads to Open Concept Living Room and Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Counter tops, Tile Backsplash, Upgraded 42 Inch Cabinets with Modern Cabinet Hardware & Large Walk-In Pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bathroom With Separate Tub & Shower, Two Sinks, & HUGE Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Covered Patio, Full Sod, & Sprinkler System Included! Tankless Water Heater and Smart Home Package Included! Awesome Community with Acres of preserved open space, natural creeks, walking trails, green space, and pocket parks! Estimated Completion Spring 2026.

17. 2026-03-05
    listed $266,990 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN GRANGER PINES! Popular Split Plan Layout! 3 Beds and 2 Baths! Impressive Foyer Leads to Open Concept Living Room and Gourmet Island Kitchen with Quartz Counter tops, Tile Backsplash, Upgraded 42 Inch Cabinets with Modern Cabinet Hardware & Large Walk-In Pantry. Privately Located Primary Suite Features Great Bathroom With Separate Tub & Shower, Two Sinks, & HUGE Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Covered Patio, Full Sod, & Sprinkler System Included! Tankless Water Heater and Smart Home Package Included! Awesome Community with Acres of preserved open space, natural creeks, walking trails, green space, and pocket parks! Estimated Completion Spring 2026.

18. 2026-01-21
    listed $265,990 Active 1497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

    You have arrived at 16783 Country Roots Avenue, located in Granger Pines. This single-story house spans 1,573 square feet and features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. This floor plan is designed to offer comfortable living spaces and convenient amenities, creating a welcoming and functional home. Before you enter house, you are greeted by a rectangular porch, adding a welcoming touch to the home's exterior. Upon entering the abode, the foyer welcomes you with a linen closet immediately on your side, providing convenient storage space. Adjacent to the linen closet is the entryway of the two-car garage. Moving further down the foyer, you will come across the secondary bathroom, which features nice fixtures, vinyl flooring, and a tub/shower combo. On either side of the bathroom are two identical secondary bedrooms, offering comfortable living spaces. Each bedroom is complete with soft carpet flooring, a bright window illuminating the room, and a tall closet. Returning to the foyer, you will find the utility room for your washer and dryer, making laundry chores convenient and organized. The position of the utility room makes it accessible to all rooms within the home and it bears space for smaller storage items. Past the utility room, you enter the family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. The open concept living and dining space of this one-story house makes the home functional and inviting with its bright windows and vinyl flooring. The kitchen sho

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$6,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $-405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in Granger Pines is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $257,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $266,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $265,990 Zillow