2509 River Rdg · Woodloch, TX 77385

$237,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,567 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1972 0.28 ac lot $93/sqft · 16% below area Est $283k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED! This brick home in Conroe, Texas! This inviting property sits on a LARGE LOT that has plenty of yard space plus an extended driveway, and a versatile GARAGE CONVERSION. This property is perfect for first-time buyers or investors and is located in a desirable Conroe neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property. We also have OTHER HOMES in the Conroe Area. When you call be sure and ask about a PACKAGE DEAL for investors. Just give us a call!

Key facts

• Garage conversion
• Large lot
• Extended driveway

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• GARAGE CONVERSION
• DESIRABLE CONROE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Woodloch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#653 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Houser El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 636 students, 70% FRL); Irons J H (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 1,344 students, 52% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $238k implies a 441% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,633 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.65%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,059
• List price: $237,999
• Delta: -15.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2687 S Woodloch St	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,463 (-4%)	2mo	$189,900	$77	88
2535 River Rdg	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,301 (-10%)	0mo	$274,900	$119	70
9961 Yearling Pl	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,587 (+1%)	6mo	$290,000	$112	70
16707 Lark Bunting Ln	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,572 (+0%)	3mo	$339,900	$132	68
9976 Cassowary Dr	0.37mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,653 (+3%)	5mo	$325,000	$123	68
9950 Valance Way	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,637 (+3%)	8mo	$345,000	$131	64
2652 S Woodloch St	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,322 (-10%)	5mo	$199,900	$86	62
10158 N Whimbrel Cir	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,284 (-11%)	1mo	$316,000	$138	60
10190 N Whimbrel Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,254 (-12%)	1mo	$317,000	$141	54
9889 Hyacinth Way	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,382 (-7%)	1mo	$319,900	$134	54
16743 Fallen Timbers Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,321 (-10%)	8mo	$271,000	$117	48
16997 White Birch Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,868 (+12%)	10mo	$499,000	$174	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-54,038
• Equity at exit: $35,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-60,292
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,595/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $188,633

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-212	+0% $-279	+5% $-347	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-369	+0% $-279	+5% $-190	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-219	base $-279	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2662 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,910	$0.93	0d	1	0.25mi
2657 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1920	$1,860	$0.97	0d	1	0.29mi
9952 Swallow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	3136	$2,180	$0.70	19d	1	0.53mi
9931 Chimney Swift Ln Conroe, TX	5.0	3.0	3068	$2,250	$0.73	15d	1	0.55mi
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,040	$0.95	0d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,999 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,999 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,999 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,999 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,999 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,999 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,999 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,999 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,999 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,999 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,999 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,999 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    status Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    JUST LISTED! This brick home in Conroe, Texas! This inviting property sits on a LARGE LOT that has plenty of yard space plus an extended driveway, and a versatile GARAGE CONVERSION. This property is perfect for first-time buyers or investors and is located in a desirable Conroe neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property. We also have OTHER HOMES in the Conroe Area. When you call be sure and ask about a PACKAGE DEAL for investors. Just give us a call!

16. 2026-02-10
    status Pending 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    JUST LISTED! This brick home in Conroe, Texas! This inviting property sits on a LARGE LOT that has plenty of yard space plus an extended driveway, and a versatile GARAGE CONVERSION. This property is perfect for first-time buyers or investors and is located in a desirable Conroe neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property. We also have OTHER HOMES in the Conroe Area. When you call be sure and ask about a PACKAGE DEAL for investors. Just give us a call!

17. 2026-01-30
    listed $237,999 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    JUST LISTED! This brick home in Conroe, Texas! This inviting property sits on a LARGE LOT that has plenty of yard space plus an extended driveway, and a versatile GARAGE CONVERSION. This property is perfect for first-time buyers or investors and is located in a desirable Conroe neighborhood. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property. We also have OTHER HOMES in the Conroe Area. When you call be sure and ask about a PACKAGE DEAL for investors. Just give us a call!

18. 2025-05-13
    soldstatus $44,000
19. 2020-12-03
    soldstatus
20. 2018-03-07
    soldstatus
21. 2018-03-01
    soldstatus Sold 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

22. 2018-02-08
    status Pending 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

23. 2018-02-06
    status Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

24. 2018-01-30
    status Option Pending 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

25. 2018-01-29
    status Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

26. 2018-01-23
    status Pending 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

27. 2018-01-19
    price $69,900 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

28. 2017-12-29
    listed $79,900 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home Flooded in Harvey, Ike, and 1994. Spacious 3 bedroom home on oversize lot. Formal living and dining rooms Huge private backyard with a spacious guest quarters. Both main Home and secondary has been gutted and ready for renovations. Being sold as is. Quiet small neighborhood that has easy access to I-45 and 242. Perfect for an investor or a fixer upper.

29. 1994-06-24
    soldstatus
30. 1991-09-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,595 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$760/yr (+$63/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,595
• − Insurance: −$6,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$7,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,745
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodloch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+197.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $237,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-02-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-01-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-19 Price Changed $69,900 HARMLS
• 2017-12-29 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 1994-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,595 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.