1422 Segovia Pl · The Villages, FL 32162

$410,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2001 6,120 sqft lot Est $415k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the heart of The Villages! Located on a quiet street, 1422 Segovia Place offers comfortable Florida living with an inviting open floor plan, abundant natural light, and a seamless flow perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The spacious kitchen features ample cabinetry and counter space, opening to a bright dining and living area. Enjoy a generously sized primary suite with a private bath and walk-in closet. Step outside to a screened lanai—ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Conveniently situated near golf courses, recreation centers, shopping, and dining, this home combine

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SCREENED LANAI
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: RES; Lot size approximately 0.14 acres
• HOA & community: CDD applies; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 102

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); Wildwood Middle/ High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 843 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sumter average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,034/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,428 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $414,932
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1422 Segovia Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,044 (0%)	0mo	$377,224	$185	100
1564 Oak Forest Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,016 (-1%)	2mo	$410,000	$203	84
1426 LA Hermosa Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	3mo	$412,500	$218	83
1404 Valparaiso St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	2mo	$335,000	$177	78
2967 Saint Thomas Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,032 (-1%)	2mo	$460,000	$226	74
2574 Caribe Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,744 (-15%)	4mo	$415,000	$238	68
3104 Burbank Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,932 (-6%)	4mo	$375,000	$194	63
3065 Batally Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,906 (-7%)	1mo	$275,000	$144	59
2403 Tamarindo Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,179 (+7%)	1mo	$500,000	$229	58
2450 Merida Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,851 (-9%)	3mo	$350,000	$189	53
1302 Fortaleza Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-12%)	3mo	$615,000	$342	52
9430 SE 177th Simons Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,767 (-14%)	1mo	$339,900	$192	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-72,554
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-63,234
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,574/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,209

Max offer price $385,555

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	21d	1	0.62mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	21d	1	0.83mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	21d	1	0.96mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	21d	1	1.11mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	21d	1	1.25mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	21d	1	1.36mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	1.36mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	1.45mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	21d	1	1.48mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $410,000 Active
3. 2026-04-30
   historical
4. 2026-01-28
   price $399,999
5. 2026-01-16
   price $410,000
6. 2025-11-02
   listed $424,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,574 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$2,574
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,913
• − Management: −$2,913
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$8,933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,144
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $399,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Listed $424,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,574 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.