1103 Lawndale Dr · Tupelo, MS 38801

$179,500

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1969 0.40 ac lot $127/sqft · 40% above area Est $198k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Tupelo, MS, this 5BR, 3BA home offers plenty of space in the Tupelo School District, with a functional layout that includes a spacious primary bedroom on the lower level. Convenient location close to shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Agents see private remarks. All information is deemed reliable but NOT guaranteed.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 96 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#26 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, employment D+.
• Tupelo Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $180k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,720 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,074
• List price: $179,500
• Delta: -9.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Stone St	0.54mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,539 (+9%)	18mo	$117,000	$76	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,747
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,141
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38801

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,446/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,628

Max offer price $179,339

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,500 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,500 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   status $179,500 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $179,500 Pending 90 DOM
9. 2026-03-18
   status Active
10. 2026-02-02
    listed $179,500 Active
11. 2018-12-04
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,446
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable loss: −$3,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tupelo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2804320
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,002
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4456
• State rank: #28 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tupelo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #6369

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tupelo, MS
• County: Lee County · 52,445 people
• City population: 46,551
• Metro: Tupelo, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,858
• Household income: $62,946
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 890.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,253 people
• By 2030: 92,125 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 94,914 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 95,841 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 94,189 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 83,736 · -7.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+30.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.12%
• Current HPI: 173.1355
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: Tupelo, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+176.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Relisted — NEMSBD
• 2026-02-02 Listed $179,500 NEMSBD
• 2018-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,446 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.