1405 Winthrop St · North Port, FL 34288

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Land · 165 Days on market

Built 2026 10,625 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Under Construction. Exceptional opportunity to complete your dream home or investment property that futures 3 bedrooms/2 bath plus bonus room/office in desirable North Port, Florida. Construction has been started with concrete block exterior walls (shell) already in place; however, no roof, interior framing, or utilities have been installed, allowing the new owner complete flexibility to finish the home to their exact specifications. Situated in a no-HOA area with convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers seeking a customizable project with strong potential. Building and septic permits both expired. Property is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• No hoa area
• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CONCRETE BLOCK EXTERIOR WALLS
• NO HOA AREA
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO DINING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• ACCESS TO GULF COAST BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $991 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Atwater Elementary (math 68% / reading 63%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 802 students, 65% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 978 students, 55% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 42% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 1401 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $99k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.88%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $41,048
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $93,787
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34288

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 1401
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $789/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $991

Break-even live

Break-even rent $793

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,047	-5% $1,019	+0% $991	+5% $963	+10% $935
Rent	-10% $829	-5% $910	+0% $991	+5% $1,071	+10% $1,152
Rate	-1.0pp $1,040	-0.5pp $1,016	base $991	+0.5pp $965	+1.0pp $939

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $99,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    price $115,000 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Under Construction. Under Construction. Exceptional opportunity to complete your dream home or investment property that futures 3 bedrooms/2 bath plus bonus room/office in desirable North Port, Florida. Construction has been started with concrete block exterior walls (shell) already in place; however, no roof, interior framing, or utilities have been installed, allowing the new owner complete flexibility to finish the home to their exact specifications. Situated in a no-HOA area with convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers seeking a customizable project with strong potential. Building and septic permits both expired. Property is being sold AS IS.

19. 2026-01-07
    listed $130,000 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Under Construction. Under Construction. Exceptional opportunity to complete your dream home or investment property that futures 3 bedrooms/2 bath plus bonus room/office in desirable North Port, Florida. Construction has been started with concrete block exterior walls (shell) already in place; however, no roof, interior framing, or utilities have been installed, allowing the new owner complete flexibility to finish the home to their exact specifications. Situated in a no-HOA area with convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Ideal for builders, investors, or buyers seeking a customizable project with strong potential. Building and septic permits both expired. Property is being sold AS IS.

20. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $789 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$789
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,621
• After-tax cash flow: $9,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,231
• Household income: $84,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 177.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.39%
• Current HPI: 248.3322
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.40%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $789 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.