228 Yosemite Rd · San Rafael, CA 94903

$380,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $354k · 7% over ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath with an additional flex room is located in one of Contempo Marin's most sought-after communities. The home features an updated kitchen with updated countertops, modern light fixtures, and refreshed flooring, creating a fresh and inviting feel. The flex room provides versatile space for a home office, hobby room, or extra living area. Step outside to enjoy a private deck and patio, offering a comfortable spot for outdoor dining or summer BBQs. Additional highlights include a detached storage shed and ample parking. The property is situated in a pet-friendly, all-ages community with amenities that include a pool, gym, and playground.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Quartz countertops
• Ample parking

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FLEX ROOM
• PRIVATE DECK
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Champion manufacturer
• Exterior features: Located in Contempo Marin park

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island; Dishwasher; Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tubs with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace insert; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Formal entry; Bonus room; Dining room; Living room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $380k).
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.7% in San Rafael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#358 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• San Rafael City High (urban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #126 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $334,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.80%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $354,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Yosemite Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	9mo	$460,000	$295	84
304 Zion Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	1mo	$275,000	$191	84
239 Teton Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	2mo	$505,000	$312	84
275 Carlsbad Ct	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	4mo	$380,000	$264	77
243 Teton Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	6mo	$180,000	$134	75
337 Acadia Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-10%)	10mo	$190,000	$141	71
210 Olympic Way	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+2%)	20mo	$267,000	$174	71
352 Acadia Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+2%)	17mo	$375,000	$244	70
353 Yosemite Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	21mo	$505,000	$351	69
290 Yosemite Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	15mo	$340,000	$236	66
20 Yosemite Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	17mo	$280,000	$208	62
169 Yosemite Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	20mo	$280,000	$208	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-17,746
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $25,201
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94903

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,324

Max offer price $380,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
95 Professional Center Pkwy San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$3,850	$3.70	2d	4	0.36mi
108 Professional Center Pkwy San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,195	$2.66	2d	1	0.39mi
10 Professional Center Pkwy #26 San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	1107	$3,300	$2.98	24d	1	0.53mi
100 Marin Center Dr #64 San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	1112	$3,325	$2.99	5d	1	0.56mi
2500 Deer Valley Rd San Rafael, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	932	$4,267	$4.58	2d	7	0.61mi
219 Mark Twain Ave San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1601	$5,850	$3.65	2d	1	0.66mi
1001 Cresta Way San Rafael, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$4,681	$4.57	2d	21	0.67mi
267 Orris Ter San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$5,000	$3.49	24d	1	0.76mi
53 Labrea Way San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$5,800	$4.75	17d	1	0.94mi
41 Pine Tree Ct San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.5	1587	$5,500	$3.47	10d	1	1.15mi
175 Nova Albion Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$3,550	$5.04	2d	7	1.15mi
33 San Pablo Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1581	$4,995	$3.16	2d	3	1.31mi
868 Las Pavadas Ave San Rafael, CA	4.0	2.0	1595	$5,500	$3.45	22d	1	1.37mi
158 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$3,900	$3.35	24d	1	1.43mi
648 Tanbark Ter San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1332	$5,250	$3.94	19d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $380,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $380,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $380,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $380,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $380,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $380,000
15. 2026-01-20
    listed $385,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,139
• − Management: −$4,139
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable income: $3,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$844
• After-tax cash flow: $8,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Rafael City High
• NCES district ID: 0635110
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,104
• Composite: 45.58/100
• National rank: #2594
• State rank: #126 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Rafael

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #12194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Rafael, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 71,922
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,615
• Household income: $142,083
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1414.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -893.58%
• Current HPI: 303.8086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $380,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $385,000 BAREIS