619 W German St · Herkimer, NY 13350

$179,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1850 1.99 ac lot $37/sqft · 50% below area Est $355k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step into the charm and character of this stately residence, where history meets opportunity. 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms featuring abundant game room, office, kitchen, generous dining room, living room, family room, 2 stall attached garage, substantial 24 x 64 pole barn, large blacktop driveway all sitting on a . 99 acre lot which is a rare find in the Village, offering a unique blend of space, privacy and convenience. Rich with original details and timeless presence, this home offers the kind of architectural character that's increasingly hard to find. From it's commanding exterior to it's spacious interior layout, the property reflects an era of craftmanship and design, featuring hardwood fl

Key facts

• 1.99 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1850

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two-car garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Porch; Private yard; Partial fencing; Fence; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Den; Separate/formal dining room; Galley kitchen; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-458/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $151,757 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,925
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -49.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $95,081
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $281,955
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $173,480

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $179,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $199,000 Active 948-char remark
17. 2018-08-17
    historical
18. 2018-05-17
    listed $142,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$844
• After-tax cash flow: $386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+25.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $179,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2018-08-17 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-05-17 Listed $142,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,326 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.