Davis Plan · Otsego, MN 55301

$439,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 212 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home offers a modern layout with an open plan on the first floor, perfect for entertaining and everyday living. A rear bedroom conveniently located near a bathroom provides a private space for guests. Upstairs, the second floor features a versatile loft area, ideal for a home office or relaxation space, along with three additional bedrooms. The highlight of the second floor is the owner's suite, which includes a full bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring a comfortable retreat.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Convenient access
• Nearby state parks

Tags

• NEW COMMUNITY
• SCENIC LANDSCAPES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• NEARBY STATE PARKS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• DESIRABLE LOCAL SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $439,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $595,068.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.9% in Otsego — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $298,105 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.66%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,068
• List price: $439,990
• Delta: -26.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12087 80th St NE	1.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,600 (+1%)	2mo	$445,000	$171	57
8061 Lander Ave NE	1.06mi	5/3.0	2,505 (-3%)	28mo	$453,100	$181	40
6672 Lamplight Dr	0.64mi	5/3.0	3,196 (+24%)	17mo	$635,000	$199	31
12273 71st Ct NE	0.69mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,402 (-7%)	30mo	$497,370	$207	27
11293 83rd Ln NE	1.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,810 (+9%)	27mo	$749,990	$267	23
11305 83rd Ln NE	1.23mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,821 (+9%)	26mo	$699,990	$248	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-208,308
• Equity at exit: $88,727

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.95×
• Total profit: $-325,332
• Equity at exit: $51,451

Cash invested: $166,619 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 58 under contract
• Median asking: $460,990 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,121
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$744 /mo · $8,926/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $-1,757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,206

Max offer price $340,776

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,346	-5% $-1,552	+0% $-1,757	+5% $-1,963	+10% $-2,169
Rent	-10% $-1,993	-5% $-1,875	+0% $-1,757	+5% $-1,640	+10% $-1,522
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,458	-0.5pp $-1,606	base $-1,757	+0.5pp $-1,912	+1.0pp $-2,068

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,767
• Closing costs: $17,852
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7535 Lannon Ave NE Albertville, MN	5.0	3.0	2209	$3,099	$1.40	99d	1	0.56mi
7816 Langley Ave NE Otsego, MN	4.0	2.0	2608	$1,750	$0.67	0d	1	0.98mi
11367 84th St NE Otsego, MN	4.0	2.5	2271	$1,500	$0.66	0d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 7021 Lannon Ave NE, Otsego MN 55301Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price provided (details omitted from features)
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with space for 3 vehicles (3 garage spaces total)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Davis plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Property includes a living area of 2,582 (measurement provided)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $439,990 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $439,990 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $439,990 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $439,990 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $439,990 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $439,990 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $439,990 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $439,990 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $439,990 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $439,990 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $439,990 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $439,990 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $439,990 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $439,990 Active 198 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $439,990 Active 197 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $439,990 Active 196 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $439,990 Active 195 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $439,990 Active 194 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $439,990 Active 193 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $439,990 Active 192 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $439,990 Active 191 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $439,990 Active 190 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $439,990 Active 189 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $439,990 Active 188 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $439,990 Active 187 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 186 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $439,990 Active 185 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $439,990 Active 184 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $439,990 Active 183 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $439,990 Active 182 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $439,990 Active 181 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $439,990 Active 180 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $439,990 Active 179 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $439,990 Active 178 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 177 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 176 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $439,990 Active 175 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $464,990 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $464,990 Active 174 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $464,990 Active 173 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $464,990 Active 172 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $464,990 Active 171 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $464,990 Active 170 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $464,990 Active 168 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $464,990 Active 167 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $464,990 Active 166 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $464,990 Active 165 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $464,990 Active 164 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $464,990 Active 163 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $464,990 Active 162 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,333
• − Property taxes: −$8,926
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,862
• − Management: −$2,862
• − Depreciation: −$17,311
• Taxable loss: −$32,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,799
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Otsego Elementary B MN #157/857 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Rogers Middle School B+ MN #19/258 Nat'l #1,545/14,009 High Rogers Senior High B MN #28/471 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 142,526 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 7021 Lannon Ave NE, Otsego MN 55301Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-21Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price provided (details omitted from features)
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage with space for 3 vehicles (3 garage spaces total)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Davis plan (new construction plan)
• Construction: New construction (plan inventory)
• Exterior features: Property includes a living area of 2,582 (measurement provided)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided