10940 Main Rd · East Marion, NY 11939

$1,300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1969 0.64 ac lot $716/sqft · at area comps Est $1268k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ranch style home offers a blend of comfort, convenience, and opportunity. With three spacious bedrooms and three beautifully finished bathrooms, the home provides generous space for relaxation, work, or entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen features a stainless-steel appliance package, Quartz countertops, and a Thor range and hood, combining style with functionality. The homes’ living room with wood-burning fireplace, creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout the seasons, while the enclosed sunroom fills the home with natural light and is the perfect setting for year-round enjoyment. Set on a generous .63 acre lot, the property also offers a detached garage that adds valuable storage and workspace as well as ample room for a pool. Located in the vibrant community of East Marion, this home is in close proximity to local eateries, parks, beaches and other recreational amenities. Do not miss the chance to explore all the possibilities this special property has to offer.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Enclosed sunroom
• Thor range and hood

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• THOR RANGE AND HOOD
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• HALF ACRE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.30M (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.22M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $364k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$88k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $900k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,222,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,267,590
• List price: $1,300,000
• Delta: 2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 South Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,700 (-6%)	6mo	$2,046,000	$1,204	52
3130 Rocky Point Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-3%)	22mo	$925,000	$524	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $343,983
• Equity at exit: $619,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $966,750
• Equity at exit: $982,219

Cash invested: $364,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,214/yr
• Insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,720
• Net cashflow: $2,438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,865

Max offer price $1,300,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $325,000
• Closing costs: $39,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11930 Main Rd East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	43d	1	0.20mi
460 Bay Ave East Marion, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$8,000	$5.33	43d	1	0.27mi
870 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	1500	$10,000	$6.67	43d	1	0.31mi
300 Marion Pl East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$19,000	$10.86	24d	1	0.32mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	18d	1	0.53mi
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	43d	1	0.76mi
1110 Gillette Dr East Marion, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$7,000	$4.67	18d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,300,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,300,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $1,300,000 Active 1008-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

    This ranch style home offers a blend of comfort, convenience, and opportunity. With three spacious bedrooms and three beautifully finished bathrooms, the home provides generous space for relaxation, work, or entertaining. The well-appointed kitchen features a stainless-steel appliance package, Quartz countertops, and a Thor range and hood, combining style with functionality. The homes’ living room with wood-burning fireplace, creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere throughout the seasons, while the enclosed sunroom fills the home with natural light and is the perfect setting for year-round enjoyment. Set on a generous .63 acre lot, the property also offers a detached garage that adds valuable storage and workspace as well as ample room for a pool. Located in the vibrant community of East Marion, this home is in close proximity to local eateries, parks, beaches and other recreational amenities. Do not miss the chance to explore all the possibilities this special property has to offer.

16. 2023-02-22
    soldstatus $900,000
17. 2023-01-07
    historical 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Improved price 11/4/2022 This beautiful ranch located in the Orient - East Marion Park District with beach rights is stunning! High quality detail throughout. Enter the front door and feel the comfortable open floor plan. This home offers a chefs kitchen with Thor gas stove, quartz counter tops and the finest tile backsplash to the ceiling, living room with a wood burning fireplace, both dining and breakfast table areas, three bedrooms with one of the finest en-suite bathrooms, office, sunroom, laundry room, and mud room. Entertain a large gathering on the composite deck which overlooks the level half acre property with a winter water view. There is room for a pool ! Easy access to Orient point Ferry, Beaches and Greenport Village shops and restaurants. This home is ready to move right in !, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2023-01-06
    soldstatus $900,000 Closed 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Improved price 11/4/2022 This beautiful ranch located in the Orient - East Marion Park District with beach rights is stunning! High quality detail throughout. Enter the front door and feel the comfortable open floor plan. This home offers a chefs kitchen with Thor gas stove, quartz counter tops and the finest tile backsplash to the ceiling, living room with a wood burning fireplace, both dining and breakfast table areas, three bedrooms with one of the finest en-suite bathrooms, office, sunroom, laundry room, and mud room. Entertain a large gathering on the composite deck which overlooks the level half acre property with a winter water view. There is room for a pool ! Easy access to Orient point Ferry, Beaches and Greenport Village shops and restaurants. This home is ready to move right in !, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

19. 2022-12-01
    status Pending 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Improved price 11/4/2022 This beautiful ranch located in the Orient - East Marion Park District with beach rights is stunning! High quality detail throughout. Enter the front door and feel the comfortable open floor plan. This home offers a chefs kitchen with Thor gas stove, quartz counter tops and the finest tile backsplash to the ceiling, living room with a wood burning fireplace, both dining and breakfast table areas, three bedrooms with one of the finest en-suite bathrooms, office, sunroom, laundry room, and mud room. Entertain a large gathering on the composite deck which overlooks the level half acre property with a winter water view. There is room for a pool ! Easy access to Orient point Ferry, Beaches and Greenport Village shops and restaurants. This home is ready to move right in !, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

20. 2022-11-16
    price $950,000 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Improved price 11/4/2022 This beautiful ranch located in the Orient - East Marion Park District with beach rights is stunning! High quality detail throughout. Enter the front door and feel the comfortable open floor plan. This home offers a chefs kitchen with Thor gas stove, quartz counter tops and the finest tile backsplash to the ceiling, living room with a wood burning fireplace, both dining and breakfast table areas, three bedrooms with one of the finest en-suite bathrooms, office, sunroom, laundry room, and mud room. Entertain a large gathering on the composite deck which overlooks the level half acre property with a winter water view. There is room for a pool ! Easy access to Orient point Ferry, Beaches and Greenport Village shops and restaurants. This home is ready to move right in !, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

21. 2022-11-04
    price $850,000 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Improved price 11/4/2022 This beautiful ranch located in the Orient - East Marion Park District with beach rights is stunning! High quality detail throughout. Enter the front door and feel the comfortable open floor plan. This home offers a chefs kitchen with Thor gas stove, quartz counter tops and the finest tile backsplash to the ceiling, living room with a wood burning fireplace, both dining and breakfast table areas, three bedrooms with one of the finest en-suite bathrooms, office, sunroom, laundry room, and mud room. Entertain a large gathering on the composite deck which overlooks the level half acre property with a winter water view. There is room for a pool ! Easy access to Orient point Ferry, Beaches and Greenport Village shops and restaurants. This home is ready to move right in !, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

22. 2022-08-21
    listed $995,000 Active 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Improved price 11/4/2022 This beautiful ranch located in the Orient - East Marion Park District with beach rights is stunning! High quality detail throughout. Enter the front door and feel the comfortable open floor plan. This home offers a chefs kitchen with Thor gas stove, quartz counter tops and the finest tile backsplash to the ceiling, living room with a wood burning fireplace, both dining and breakfast table areas, three bedrooms with one of the finest en-suite bathrooms, office, sunroom, laundry room, and mud room. Entertain a large gathering on the composite deck which overlooks the level half acre property with a winter water view. There is room for a pool ! Easy access to Orient point Ferry, Beaches and Greenport Village shops and restaurants. This home is ready to move right in !, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

23. 2021-10-21
    soldstatus $655,000
24. 2013-05-06
    soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,214 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,592 · $1,133/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,378/yr (+$698/mo · 160.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $155,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,820
• − Property taxes: −$5,214
• − Insurance: −$6,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,434
• − Management: −$12,434
• − Depreciation: −$37,818
• Taxable income: $8,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,968
• After-tax cash flow: $27,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+390.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $1,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-06 Sold (MLS) $900,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-16 Price Changed $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-04 Price Changed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-21 Listed $995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $655,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,214 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.