828 N Doctor Martin Luther King St · Natchez, MS 39120

$62,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1945 6,534 sqft lot $66/sqft · 35% below area Est $96k · 35% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Parking Is Behind The House. Turn Onto Woodlawn Then To Beaumont. Make A Left Onto Pelican Ct. Go Straight Until You See 3 Houses And It Will Be The House On The End - Closest to Downtown.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 363 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.98%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,264
• List price: $62,500
• Delta: -35.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Beaumont St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+6%)	2mo	$33,000	$33	81
103 Lasalle St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	996 (+5%)	8mo	$65,000	$65	64
5 New St	0.45mi	3/1.0	924 (-2%)	11mo	$129,500	$140	62
105 Linton Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-1%)	12mo	$149,000	$159	51
308 N Rankin St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (+13%)	4mo	$255,000	$239	46
506 E 1st St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-5%)	10mo	$28,000	$31	45
703 N Wall	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+6%)	23mo	$89,000	$88	44
704 Maple St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (+12%)	6mo	$156,200	$147	44
310 N Rankin St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (+13%)	7mo	$243,500	$228	44
621 N Wall St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+14%)	8mo	$157,500	$146	38
5 Junkin St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (-11%)	7mo	$25,000	$30	32
3 Ouachita St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (-15%)	8mo	$19,000	$23	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $29,793
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $77,353
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $595/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $511

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-08-27
   price $62,500 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Parking Is Behind The House. Turn Onto Woodlawn Then To Beaumont. Make A Left Onto Pelican Ct. Go Straight Until You See 3 Houses And It Will Be The House On The End - Closest to Downtown.

2. 2025-05-27
   listed $65,000 Active 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   Parking Is Behind The House. Turn Onto Woodlawn Then To Beaumont. Make A Left Onto Pelican Ct. Go Straight Until You See 3 Houses And It Will Be The House On The End - Closest to Downtown.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$595
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $6,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,660
• After-tax cash flow: $5,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $62,500 MLSU
• 2025-05-27 Listed $65,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $595 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.