9715 McMahon Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$219,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2003 1.14 ac lot Est $287k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the quiet countryside with this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a generous 1.14-acre lot in Flagler Estates. Boasting over 2,052 sq. ft. of living space, this residence features a functional split floor plan designed for modern comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a massive walk-in closet and a versatile adjoining room perfect for a home office, nursery, or private sitting area. The ensuite bathroom includes a soaking tub and separate shower. The heart of the home is a bright, open kitchen equipped with a large breakfast bar and center island, ideal for hosting. Relax in the inviting living area featuring a cozy fireplace and sliding glass doors that lead to a finished back deck overlooking your private, wooded backyard. Outside, the expansive lot provides ample room for gardening, workshops, or storing recreational vehicles. This property offers the perfect blend of interior space and outdoor freedom. Schedule your showing today! NEIGHBORHOOD HIGHLIGHTS: Flagler Estates is a unique semi-rural community in St. Johns County where space and freedom are the primary amenities. Famous for its "Open Rural" zoning, this neighborhood offers oversized, wooded lots that provide exceptional privacy and room to breathe. COMMUNITY FEATURES & AMENITIES: FLAGLER ESTATES PARK: A local hub featuring a playground, multipurpose sports field, horseshoe pits, and picnic facilities. NO HOA/CDD: Enjoy the freedom of ownership with no restrictive HOA fees or rules. Ample space to park your boats, RVs, and ATVs right on your property. ROAD & DRAINAGE DISTRICT: Infrastructure is managed by a dedicated Road and Drainage District to ensure year-round access. OUTDOOR ADVENTURE: Located minutes from deep-water boat ramps on the St. Johns River and a short drive to the historic streets and pristine beaches of St. Augustine. Whether you are looking for a quiet place to garden, space for a workshop, or a peaceful retreat under mature oaks, Flagler Estates offers the perfect tranquil setting.

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 32 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-398/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Flagler Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,091 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,280
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9860 Nikolich Ave	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,052 (0%)	5mo	$130,000	$63	68
4705 Inez St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,196 (+7%)	5mo	$398,500	$181	57
9855 Nikolich Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,919 (-6%)	16mo	$240,000	$125	54
9725 Pocklington Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,890 (-8%)	20mo	$265,000	$140	53
9630 Mcmahon Ave	0.19mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (-12%)	14mo	$220,000	$122	50
9615 Isom Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,280 (+11%)	10mo	$295,000	$129	46
4760 Kathy St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-12%)	3mo	$260,000	$143	45
9900 Kirchherr Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-14%)	14mo	$279,000	$158	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $117,181
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $346,784
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,163/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,903

Max offer price $213,136

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 2075-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2075 chars)

   Escape to the quiet countryside with this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a generous 1.14-acre lot in Flagler Estates. Boasting over 2,052 sq. ft. of living space, this residence features a functional split floor plan designed for modern comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a massive walk-in closet and a versatile adjoining room perfect for a home office, nursery, or private sitting area. The ensuite bathroom includes a soaking tub and separate shower. The heart of the home is a bright, open kitchen equipped with a large breakfast bar and center island, ideal for hosting. Relax in the inviting living area featuring a cozy fireplace and sliding glass doors that lead to a finished back deck overlooking your private, wooded backyard. Outside, the expansive lot provides ample room for gardening, workshops, or storing recreational vehicles. This property offers the perfect blend of interior space and outdoor freedom. Schedule your showing today! NEIGHBORHOOD HIGHLIGHTS: Flagler Estates is a unique semi-rural community in St. Johns County where space and freedom are the primary amenities. Famous for its "Open Rural" zoning, this neighborhood offers oversized, wooded lots that provide exceptional privacy and room to breathe. COMMUNITY FEATURES & AMENITIES: FLAGLER ESTATES PARK: A local hub featuring a playground, multipurpose sports field, horseshoe pits, and picnic facilities. NO HOA/CDD: Enjoy the freedom of ownership with no restrictive HOA fees or rules. Ample space to park your boats, RVs, and ATVs right on your property. ROAD & DRAINAGE DISTRICT: Infrastructure is managed by a dedicated Road and Drainage District to ensure year-round access. OUTDOOR ADVENTURE: Located minutes from deep-water boat ramps on the St. Johns River and a short drive to the historic streets and pristine beaches of St. Augustine. Whether you are looking for a quiet place to garden, space for a workshop, or a peaceful retreat under mature oaks, Flagler Estates offers the perfect tranquil setting.

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $219,000 Active 2075-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2075 chars)

   Escape to the quiet countryside with this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a generous 1.14-acre lot in Flagler Estates. Boasting over 2,052 sq. ft. of living space, this residence features a functional split floor plan designed for modern comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a massive walk-in closet and a versatile adjoining room perfect for a home office, nursery, or private sitting area. The ensuite bathroom includes a soaking tub and separate shower. The heart of the home is a bright, open kitchen equipped with a large breakfast bar and center island, ideal for hosting. Relax in the inviting living area featuring a cozy fireplace and sliding glass doors that lead to a finished back deck overlooking your private, wooded backyard. Outside, the expansive lot provides ample room for gardening, workshops, or storing recreational vehicles. This property offers the perfect blend of interior space and outdoor freedom. Schedule your showing today! NEIGHBORHOOD HIGHLIGHTS: Flagler Estates is a unique semi-rural community in St. Johns County where space and freedom are the primary amenities. Famous for its "Open Rural" zoning, this neighborhood offers oversized, wooded lots that provide exceptional privacy and room to breathe. COMMUNITY FEATURES & AMENITIES: FLAGLER ESTATES PARK: A local hub featuring a playground, multipurpose sports field, horseshoe pits, and picnic facilities. NO HOA/CDD: Enjoy the freedom of ownership with no restrictive HOA fees or rules. Ample space to park your boats, RVs, and ATVs right on your property. ROAD & DRAINAGE DISTRICT: Infrastructure is managed by a dedicated Road and Drainage District to ensure year-round access. OUTDOOR ADVENTURE: Located minutes from deep-water boat ramps on the St. Johns River and a short drive to the historic streets and pristine beaches of St. Augustine. Whether you are looking for a quiet place to garden, space for a workshop, or a peaceful retreat under mature oaks, Flagler Estates offers the perfect tranquil setting.

3. 2026-04-09
   price $219,000 2075-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2075 chars)

   Escape to the quiet countryside with this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a generous 1.14-acre lot in Flagler Estates. Boasting over 2,052 sq. ft. of living space, this residence features a functional split floor plan designed for modern comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a massive walk-in closet and a versatile adjoining room perfect for a home office, nursery, or private sitting area. The ensuite bathroom includes a soaking tub and separate shower. The heart of the home is a bright, open kitchen equipped with a large breakfast bar and center island, ideal for hosting. Relax in the inviting living area featuring a cozy fireplace and sliding glass doors that lead to a finished back deck overlooking your private, wooded backyard. Outside, the expansive lot provides ample room for gardening, workshops, or storing recreational vehicles. This property offers the perfect blend of interior space and outdoor freedom. Schedule your showing today! NEIGHBORHOOD HIGHLIGHTS: Flagler Estates is a unique semi-rural community in St. Johns County where space and freedom are the primary amenities. Famous for its "Open Rural" zoning, this neighborhood offers oversized, wooded lots that provide exceptional privacy and room to breathe. COMMUNITY FEATURES & AMENITIES: FLAGLER ESTATES PARK: A local hub featuring a playground, multipurpose sports field, horseshoe pits, and picnic facilities. NO HOA/CDD: Enjoy the freedom of ownership with no restrictive HOA fees or rules. Ample space to park your boats, RVs, and ATVs right on your property. ROAD & DRAINAGE DISTRICT: Infrastructure is managed by a dedicated Road and Drainage District to ensure year-round access. OUTDOOR ADVENTURE: Located minutes from deep-water boat ramps on the St. Johns River and a short drive to the historic streets and pristine beaches of St. Augustine. Whether you are looking for a quiet place to garden, space for a workshop, or a peaceful retreat under mature oaks, Flagler Estates offers the perfect tranquil setting.

4. 2025-08-05
   historical 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Handyman Special or Investor's Dream Excellent opportunity for a spacious 2003 4-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide on 1.14 acre and close to downtown Hastings! Whether you're looking for your next flip, rental, or renovation project, this property offers incredible potential with the right vision and TLC. Property Highlights: Large Home on a Spacious Lot Enjoy privacy and room to expand. Investor & Handyman Special A great opportunity for those ready to add value! Newer roof Repairs

5. 2025-02-25
   listed $159,900 Active 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Handyman Special or Investor's Dream Excellent opportunity for a spacious 2003 4-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide on 1.14 acre and close to downtown Hastings! Whether you're looking for your next flip, rental, or renovation project, this property offers incredible potential with the right vision and TLC. Property Highlights: Large Home on a Spacious Lot Enjoy privacy and room to expand. Investor & Handyman Special A great opportunity for those ready to add value! Newer roof Repairs

6. 2022-10-06
   price $219,000
7. 2019-11-19
   soldstatus $150,000
8. 2019-11-19
   soldstatus $150,000
9. 2019-11-18
   listed $159,900
10. 2005-11-18
    historical
11. 2005-07-19
    soldstatus $85,000
12. 2005-07-15
    soldstatus $85,000
13. 2005-06-25
    listed $88,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,163 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,163 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,163
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$4,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$993
• After-tax cash flow: $595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+146.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $219,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $219,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $159,900 realMLS
• 2022-10-06 Price Changed $219,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-11-18 Listed $159,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2005-11-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-15 Sold (MLS) $85,000 realMLS
• 2005-06-25 Listed $88,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,163 · +71.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.