128 Horseshoe Ln · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1973 1.57 ac lot Est $266k · 27% under $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Diamond in the Rough you have been looking for. This beautiful home on 1.57 acres located on a very quiet road in the amenity filled Hemlock Farms Community is the one you have been looking for. The open floor plan great room with a beautiful wood burning stone fireplace is the focal point leading your eyes t the beautiful wood ceilings. Open the sliders out to the expansive deck or hang out in the screen porch for a feeling of tranquility. Just a little polish will bring this home back to its original glory.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Wood ceilings
• 1.57 acres

Tags

• 1.57 ACRES
• HEMLOCK FARMS COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD BURNING STONE FIREPLACE
• WOOD CEILINGS
• EXPANSIVE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 6.9% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $195k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.98%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,815
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Horseshoe Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,485 (0%)	1mo	$190,000	$128	99
111 Horseshoe Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+1%)	1mo	$178,500	$119	88
130 Canterbrook Dr #130	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+4%)	1mo	$260,000	$168	80
130 Canterbrook Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+4%)	1mo	$260,000	$168	80
122 Horseshoe Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-11%)	7mo	$269,000	$205	72
109 Canterbrook Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	11mo	$275,000	$179	69
120 Burning Tree Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-8%)	11mo	$250,000	$184	68
809 Lasso Ct N	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,368 (-8%)	13mo	$279,000	$204	64
115 Jackson Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (+1%)	6mo	$355,000	$237	62
103 Fairway Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+4%)	14mo	$249,000	$161	54
805 Jefferson Ct	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+4%)	12mo	$295,000	$192	49
803 Lariat Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+7%)	8mo	$190,000	$120	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $216,474
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.10×
• Total profit: $551,342
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,761/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$880
• Net cashflow: $1,728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,005

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,838	-5% $1,783	+0% $1,728	+5% $1,673	+10% $1,618
Rent	-10% $1,397	-5% $1,562	+0% $1,728	+5% $1,894	+10% $2,059
Rate	-1.0pp $1,826	-0.5pp $1,778	base $1,728	+0.5pp $1,678	+1.0pp $1,626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Portage Ln Milford, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	0d	1	0.99mi
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	2d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2012-04-10
   soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,761 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,761
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,025
• − Management: −$4,025
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $18,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,543
• After-tax cash flow: $16,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $195,000 PWMLS
• 2012-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,761 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.