127 Lyndale Ave · Overlea, MD 21236

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,791 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1953 4,095 sqft lot Est $265k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon! Beautifully maintained Nottingham home with a private driveway and plenty of space to enjoy both indoors and out. The spacious living room features a cozy brick-surround pellet stove, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere leading to the updated galley-style kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances and a gas range. The upper level features 3 bedrooms and a full bath. The lower level offers a fully finished basement that provides valuable additional living space and includes a full bathroom, laundry area, and direct outdoor access. What truly sets this property apart is the all-season sunroom, offering year-round enjoyment with two sliding glass doors that open to th

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Full bath
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• BRICK SURROUND PELLET STOVE
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• FULL BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above grade and below grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the primary upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on upper level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning with ductless/mini-split
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Daylight, partial basement with interior access, outside entrance, connecting stairway; Basement is partially finished and full

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.3% in Overlea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#38 in MD, #1,418 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fullerton Elementary (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #285 of 860 statewide, top 33%, 411 students, 58% FRL); Parkville Middle (math 9% / reading 43%, grade F, #91 of 225 statewide, top 42%, 999 students, 55% FRL); Overlea High (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #185 of 222 statewide, top 85%, 1,365 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 39% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,345 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,068
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Lyndale Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-3%)	3mo	$257,000	$148	90
118 Sipple Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-3%)	8mo	$275,000	$159	82
112 Sipple Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-3%)	16mo	$255,000	$147	77
5144 Terrace Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,658 (-7%)	19mo	$300,000	$181	66
301 3rd St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+2%)	6mo	$249,500	$136	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-18,082
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $37,528
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21236

• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,693/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $393	+0% $316	+5% $238	+10% $160
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $211	+0% $316	+5% $420	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $454	-0.5pp $386	base $316	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Elinor Ave Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,900	$1.96	45d	1	0.18mi
100 Elinor Ave Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,800	$1.56	25d	1	0.20mi
5110 Kenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1406	$2,500	$1.78	45d	1	0.34mi
5 Belhaven Dr Nottingham, MD	4.0	1.5	1554	$2,000	$1.29	45d	1	0.59mi
29 E Elm Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	2052	$3,000	$1.46	6d	1	0.64mi
7726 Heathers Ln Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.5	2397	$3,500	$1.46	18d	1	0.98mi
3617 Double Rock Ln Parkville, MD	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,395	$1.20	6d	1	1.01mi
7935 Belridge Rd Nottingham, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	974	$2,213	$2.27	0d	19	1.19mi
5938 Clayton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	18d	1	1.20mi
8501 Franklin Square Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,780	$2.93	0d	18	1.37mi
30 Morning Ct Rosedale, MD	3.0	3.5	1980	$3,350	$1.69	19d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $274,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   listed $274,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$2,693
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,547
• − Management: −$2,547
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$717
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$172
• After-tax cash flow: $3,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Overlea

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #1418

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Overlea, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 39,514
• Household income: $95,149
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1476.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 19% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.43%
• Current HPI: 244.9907
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.34%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+208.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Coming Soon $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-04 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-21 Sold (MLS) $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-25 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 1990-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,693 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.