802 Cain St · Pocahontas, AR 72455

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1940 1.00 ac lot $106/sqft · 29% above area Est $131k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an upstairs level with elegant hardwood floors throughout. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers extra space and added privacy. Enjoy the fully fenced yardperfect for pets, play, or entertainingand relax year-round in the screened porch. A wonderful combination of comfort, style, and outdoor living!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($637/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.6% in Pocahontas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools D-.
• Pocahontas School District (rural): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #165 of 238 in AR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,675 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.82%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,698
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -4.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1108 S Park St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,204 (+2%)	2mo	$48,000	$40	66
302 Park St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (+7%)	9mo	$115,000	$90	46
1611 Birdell	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	2mo	$130,000	$97	43
915 W Pyburn	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-15%)	7mo	$44,000	$44	40
1606 W Pyburn St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-12%)	7mo	$55,000	$53	40
1905 Warren St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+12%)	20mo	$126,900	$96	36
2229 Highway 62 W	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,015 (-14%)	14mo	$105,000	$103	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,917
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,555
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72455

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $700/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $88	+0% $53	+5% $18	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $12	+0% $53	+5% $94	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $85	base $53	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
915 W Pyburn St Pocahontas, AR	2.0	1.0	1008	$875	$0.87	44d	1	0.53mi
2503 Ridgeland Cir Pocahontas, AR	2.0	2.5	1486	$995	$0.67	45d	1	1.16mi
2503 Ridgeland Cir Unit 4 Pocahontas, AR	2.0	2.5	1486	$995	$0.67	44d	1	1.16mi
2506 Ridgeland Cir Apt 2 Pocahontas, AR	2.0	2.5	1438	$1,495	$1.04	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    price $125,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an upstairs level with elegant hardwood floors throughout. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers extra space and added privacy. Enjoy the fully fenced yardperfect for pets, play, or entertainingand relax year-round in the screened porch. A wonderful combination of comfort, style, and outdoor living!

18. 2026-02-14
    listed $153,000 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an upstairs level with elegant hardwood floors throughout. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this property offers extra space and added privacy. Enjoy the fully fenced yardperfect for pets, play, or entertainingand relax year-round in the screened porch. A wonderful combination of comfort, style, and outdoor living!

19. 2025-06-30
    soldstatus $139,000
20. 2025-06-25
    soldstatus $139,000
21. 2025-06-25
    soldstatus $139,000
22. 2025-06-18
    soldstatus $139,000
23. 2025-01-01
    listed $139,000
24. 2022-05-31
    soldstatus $110,000
25. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus $110,000
26. 2022-03-25
    listed $109,900
27. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus
28. 2020-11-24
    listed $90,000
29. 2014-01-31
    soldstatus $57,000
30. 2012-07-18
    soldstatus $45,000
31. 2008-04-07
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$700
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$363
• After-tax cash flow: $1,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocahontas School District
• NCES district ID: 0511610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,399
• Composite: 23.36/100
• National rank: #7907
• State rank: #165 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pocahontas

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #6525

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocahontas, AR
• Population (ZIP): 13,572

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,421 people
• By 2030: 15,733 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 14,296 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 12,884 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 9,535 · -41.9%
• By 2100: 6,520 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Pacific Islander 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.7) · D 17.1% · R 80.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -63.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.7 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.61%
• Current HPI: 179.3505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $125,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $153,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-18 Sold (MLS) $139,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $139,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2022-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2022-03-25 Listed $109,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) — CARMLS
• 2020-11-24 Listed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2014-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+63.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $700 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.