4665 Cotherstone Cir · Clarence, NY 14031

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2009 436 sqft lot $116/sqft · 9% below area Est $204k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away within a welcoming 55+ community, this charming 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and a peaceful lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find a spacious primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and a full bath with a walk-in shower and double sinks. The open floor plan showcases a large living room and an eat-in kitchen with a center island, offering ample counter and cupboard space, along with a bright morning room, perfect for starting your day. A sliding glass door leads to a deck overlooking the private, tree-lined lot. Enjoy outdoor living with not one, but two decks complete with a canopy ideal for relaxing or entertaining plus a large shed for additional storage. Additional highlights include central air, a whole house generator (2021), furnace (2021), and roof (2022). Residents also enjoy access to a clubhouse with a full kitchen, perfect for hosting larger gatherings. One dog under 50 lbs is permitted, cable is included, and all buyers must be approved by the park.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Eat in kitchen
• Full bath

Tags

• WALK IN CLOSET
• FULL BATH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• BRIGHT MORNING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.3% in Clarence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,555 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,750
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -9.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9808 Tottenham Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,728 (+8%)	4mo	$152,500	$88	75
4597 Leytonstone Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,421 (-11%)	3mo	$255,000	$179	68
9811 Kingsthorpe Ter	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+5%)	17mo	$198,000	$118	67
9908 Limehouse Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+5%)	21mo	$198,000	$118	56
9837 Sandringham Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+11%)	19mo	$160,000	$90	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,146
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,971
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14031

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $207	+0% $155	+5% $103	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $88	+0% $155	+5% $222	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $202	base $155	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $185,000 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-03-24
   listed $185,000 Active 1030-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1030 chars)

   Tucked away within a welcoming 55+ community, this charming 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and a peaceful lifestyle. Inside, you’ll find a spacious primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and a full bath with a walk-in shower and double sinks. The open floor plan showcases a large living room and an eat-in kitchen with a center island, offering ample counter and cupboard space, along with a bright morning room, perfect for starting your day. A sliding glass door leads to a deck overlooking the private, tree-lined lot. Enjoy outdoor living with not one, but two decks complete with a canopy ideal for relaxing or entertaining plus a large shed for additional storage. Additional highlights include central air, a whole house generator (2021), furnace (2021), and roof (2022). Residents also enjoy access to a clubhouse with a full kitchen, perfect for hosting larger gatherings. One dog under 50 lbs is permitted, cable is included, and all buyers must be approved by the park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$739/yr (+$62/mo · 44.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $2,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,741

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.27%
• Current HPI: 344.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $185,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,648 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.