4551 Orange Blossom Dr · Zephyrhills South, FL 33542

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1979 5,715 sqft lot Est $91k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing Find! 3 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms. No HOA and No lot rent on a corner lot with plenty of storage and off street parking. Ready to move into and can close fast.

Key facts

• Covered carport area
• Additional storage
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED CARPORT AREA
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot, landscaped, level; Lot is approximately 0.13 acres (about 531 sq meters)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Paved access/driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces east; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage; Other exterior structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom floor plan; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.28%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,944
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4551 Orange Blossom Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$96	99
4550 Olive Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (-8%)	1mo	$97,000	$135	77
4413 Sentry Palm Loop	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+10%)	9mo	$130,000	$150	60
4833 Royal Palm Dr	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-14%)	2mo	$78,000	$116	52
4927 Coral St	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	720 (-8%)	12mo	$66,000	$92	52
37706 March Ln	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	672 (-14%)	9mo	$80,000	$119	46
37418 Hammond Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	692 (-12%)	13mo	$62,000	$90	33
37437 Ray Dr	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	680 (-13%)	17mo	$74,900	$110	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $18,802
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $47,008
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,579/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.08mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	0.16mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.20mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	0.29mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	24d	1	0.41mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	0.51mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	0.58mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	0.61mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.68mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	24d	1	0.78mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	0.80mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	0.90mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	0.92mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	24d	1	1.03mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	24d	1	1.03mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	1.04mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	5d	1	1.10mi
38552 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1052	$2,100	$2.00	20d	1	1.20mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.20mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.21mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	1.22mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,185	$8.56	2d	1	1.41mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	3d	1	1.41mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	24d	1	1.43mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	1.48mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $84,900
3. 2026-04-25
   price $99,900
4. 2026-04-12
   listed $109,900 Active
5. 2024-07-25
   soldstatus $125,000
6. 2024-07-17
   soldstatus $125,000 Closed 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   Amazing Find! 3 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms. No HOA and No lot rent on a corner lot with plenty of storage and off street parking. Ready to move into and can close fast.

7. 2024-06-28
   status Pending 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   Amazing Find! 3 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms. No HOA and No lot rent on a corner lot with plenty of storage and off street parking. Ready to move into and can close fast.

8. 2024-06-11
   listed $125,000 Active 166-char remark

   Show marketing remark (166 chars)

   Amazing Find! 3 Bedrooms and 2 Bathrooms. No HOA and No lot rent on a corner lot with plenty of storage and off street parking. Ready to move into and can close fast.

9. 2014-12-01
   soldstatus $43,900 Sold 75-char remark

   Show marketing remark (75 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath furnished MH on a nice corner lot with room for your pets.

10. 2014-11-12
    status Pending 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath furnished MH on a nice corner lot with room for your pets.

11. 2014-08-19
    listed $43,900 Active 75-char remark

    Show marketing remark (75 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath furnished MH on a nice corner lot with room for your pets.

12. 2005-08-09
    soldstatus $45,000
13. 1998-08-26
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,579
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $5,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $5,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills South

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #20702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills South, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+239.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-17 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-11 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-01 Sold (MLS) $43,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-19 Listed $43,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,579 · +310.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.