Davidson Plan · Otsego, MN 55301

$427,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home has a smart layout that offers ample space and functionality. The first floor is occupied by the living area, which includes an open Great Room, dining room and kitchen. A bedroom on the same level can be used as a home office. The three remaining bedrooms are tucked away upstairs to ensure better privacy and center around a versatile loft. The spacious owner's suite comes with an attached bathroom and oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Top-rated schools
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 86 days

Tags

• PEACEFUL SUBURBAN LIVING
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $427,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $579,408.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $428k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,016 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,408
• List price: $427,990
• Delta: -26.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7303 Kalland Cir NE	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,086 (-4%)	21mo	$310,000	$149	42
11528 81st Ln NE	1.64mi	4/3.0	2,050 (-6%)	37mo	$402,000	$196	36
11453 81st Ln NE	1.56mi	4/3.0	2,049 (-6%)	47mo	$408,990	$200	36
9856 51st St NE	2.19mi	4/3.0	2,439 (+12%)	46mo	$484,990	$199	24
9828 51st St NE	2.17mi	4/3.0	2,489 (+15%)	52mo	$525,720	$211	20
11293 83rd Ln NE	1.51mi	4/3.5	2,810 (+30%)	24mo	$749,990	$267	18
11305 83rd Ln NE	1.52mi	4/4.0	2,821 (+30%)	23mo	$699,990	$248	17
8061 Lander Ave NE	1.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,505 (+15%)	25mo	$453,100	$181	15
6999 Linwood Dr NE	1.14mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,695 (-22%)	35mo	$330,000	$195	15
10701 58th St NE	1.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-24%)	40mo	$335,000	$202	11
7859 Lachman Ave	1.13mi	6/3.0 (+2)	2,700 (+24%)	47mo	$437,290	$162	10
8358 Lamont Ave NE	1.56mi	2/2.0 (-2)	1,734 (-20%)	27mo	$575,000	$332	6

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-178,790
• Equity at exit: $86,392

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-264,870
• Equity at exit: $50,097

Cash invested: $162,234 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 3 under contract
• Median asking: $424,700 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,038
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$724 /mo · $8,691/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-1,334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,069

Max offer price $386,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-933	-5% $-1,134	+0% $-1,334	+5% $-1,534	+10% $-1,734
Rent	-10% $-1,601	-5% $-1,467	+0% $-1,334	+5% $-1,200	+10% $-1,067
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,042	-0.5pp $-1,186	base $-1,334	+0.5pp $-1,484	+1.0pp $-1,637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,852
• Closing costs: $17,382
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7712 Lachman Ave NE Albertville, MN	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,259	$1.48	40d	1	1.13mi
11193 68th St NE Unit NA Albertville, MN	3.0	3.0	2644	$3,250	$1.23	35d	1	1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $418,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)Inventory Type: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 7302 Kaeding Ave NE, Otsego, MN 55301

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Davidson (new construction plan)Living area approximately 2170

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $427,990 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $427,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $427,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $427,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $427,990 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $427,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $427,990 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $427,990 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $427,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $425,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $425,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $425,990 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $425,990 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $425,990 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $425,990 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $425,990 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $425,990 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $425,990 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $425,990 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $425,990 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $425,990 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $425,990 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $425,990 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $425,990 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $425,990 Active 54 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $425,990 Active 53 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $425,990 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $425,990 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $425,990 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $425,990 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $425,990 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $425,990 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $425,990 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $425,990 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $425,990 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $425,990 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $425,990 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    price $425,990 Active 39 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $423,990 Active 39 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $423,990 Active 36 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $423,990 Active 35 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $423,990 Active 34 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $423,990 Active 33 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $423,990 Active 31 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $423,990 Active 30 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $423,990 Active 27 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $423,990 Active 26 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $423,990 Active 25 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $423,990 Active 22 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $423,990 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,456
• − Property taxes: −$8,691
• − Insurance: −$2,897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,245
• − Management: −$3,245
• − Depreciation: −$16,856
• Taxable loss: −$26,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,439
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a smart layout and modern finishes. It offers ample space and functionality, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system to a more energy-efficient model — An energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard with more privacy and aesthetic appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing front yard can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Prairie View Elementary School B+ MN #118/857 Nat'l #4,921/41,679 Middle Prairie View Middle School B- MN #48/258 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Rogers Senior High B MN #28/471 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 142,526 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, China, Canada

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Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveListing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $418,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)Inventory Type: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 7302 Kaeding Ave NE, Otsego, MN 55301

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Davidson (new construction plan)Living area approximately 2170