Davidson Plan · Otsego, MN 55301

$425,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home has a smart layout that offers ample space and functionality. The first floor is occupied by the living area, which includes an open Great Room, dining room and kitchen. A bedroom on the same level can be used as a home office. The three remaining bedrooms are tucked away upstairs to ensure better privacy and center around a versatile loft. The spacious owner's suite comes with an attached bathroom and oversized walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Top-rated schools
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 39 days

Tags

• PEACEFUL SUBURBAN LIVING
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Listing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $418,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction); Inventory Type: Plan
• Exterior features: Address: 7302 Kaeding Ave NE, Otsego, MN 55301

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Davidson (new construction plan); Living area approximately 2170

🏗️ New construction. The $425,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $463,921.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $426k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Otsego — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,016 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $463,921
• List price: $425,990
• Delta: -8.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-109,245
• Equity at exit: $69,172

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-138,857
• Equity at exit: $40,111

Cash invested: $129,898 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,433
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$580 /mo · $6,959/yr
• Insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,058

Max offer price $386,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-215	-5% $-375	+0% $-536	+5% $-696	+10% $-856
Rent	-10% $-803	-5% $-669	+0% $-536	+5% $-402	+10% $-269
Rate	-1.0pp $-302	-0.5pp $-418	base $-536	+0.5pp $-656	+1.0pp $-778

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,980
• Closing costs: $13,918
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7712 Lachman Ave NE Albertville, MN	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,259	$1.48	0d	1	1.13mi
11193 68th St NE Unit NA Albertville, MN	3.0	3.0	2644	$3,250	$1.23	0d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   price $425,990 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $423,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $423,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $423,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $423,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $423,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $423,990 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $423,990 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $423,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $423,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $423,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $423,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $423,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $423,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $418,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $418,990 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $418,990 Active 455-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,987
• − Property taxes: −$6,959
• − Insurance: −$2,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,245
• − Management: −$3,245
• − Depreciation: −$13,496
• Taxable loss: −$14,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a smart layout and modern finishes. It offers ample space and functionality, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system to a more energy-efficient model — An energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs.
• Both Landscaping the front yard with more privacy and aesthetic appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing front yard can increase curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to a more modern style — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system to a more energy-efficient model — An energy-efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce utility costs. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard with more privacy and aesthetic appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing front yard can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 50.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, China, Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B