133 Bircher Ave · Dayton, OH 45403

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1920 3,324 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and one full bath! You’ll love the covered porch and the detached 2 car garage! You’ll also feel good knowing the seller has put in a newer furnace and updated the electric already! This is a great opportunity to make your own personal home or a great investment!Property and/or units are currently approved and tenanted through Section 8 at $850.

Key facts

• 3,324 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $35,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$138,040) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($38k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.45%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 N Westview Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	960 (-3%)	0mo	$160,000	$167	83
3509 E 2nd St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-6%)	2mo	$105,000	$113	80
254 N Wright Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	998 (+1%)	3mo	$140,000	$140	78
213 N Delmar Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	922 (-6%)	3mo	$150,000	$163	78
431 N Garland Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	997 (+1%)	3mo	$123,000	$123	69
507 Sheridan Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+2%)	1mo	$115,500	$115	66
146 N Garland Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+13%)	4mo	$126,000	$113	65
41 N Westview Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	858 (-13%)	0mo	$150,000	$175	64
335 N Garland Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	864 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$150	62
4516 Glen Martin Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,015 (+3%)	1mo	$147,000	$145	60
413 Sheridan Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	918 (-7%)	3mo	$70,000	$76	52
23 Murray Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,131 (+15%)	1mo	$150,000	$133	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $34,893
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.66×
• Total profit: $84,914
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45403

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $475/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $301

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3719 E 3rd St Unit 3717 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	2d	1	0.22mi
101 N Irwin St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	3d	1	0.27mi
144 N Quentin Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1038	$1,600	$1.54	44d	1	0.34mi
211 N Cherrywood Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$795	$0.84	3d	1	0.39mi
210 S Hedges St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1048	$1,045	$1.00	21d	1	0.46mi
224 S Irwin St Unit 226 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	992	$900	$0.91	3d	1	0.52mi
120 S Monmouth St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	0.54mi
334 Blackwood Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	23d	1	0.58mi
334 Blackwood Ave Unit 3 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	3d	1	0.58mi
4403 Burkhardt Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	2d	1	0.76mi
1356 Huffman Ave Unit 1356 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	864	$975	$1.13	44d	1	0.79mi
29 N Garfield St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,000	$0.92	23d	1	0.79mi
1300 Chardon Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	970	$1,200	$1.24	2d	1	0.88mi
1371 Florence St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	3d	1	0.92mi
222 Klee Ave Unit 222B Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	650	$750	$1.15	44d	1	0.94mi
515 Mertland Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	23d	1	0.96mi
517 Mertland Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	876	$875	$1.00	14d	1	0.96mi
4644 Burkhardt Ave Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,095	$1.51	2d	9	0.98mi
1704 Huffman Ave Unit 1706 Huffman Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	896	$900	$1.00	3d	1	1.01mi
1620 Gummer Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	3d	1	1.04mi
1671 Gummer Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	704	$1,100	$1.56	2d	1	1.07mi
1762 Suman Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	804	$1,150	$1.43	21d	1	1.11mi
2200 E 5th St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$825	$0.82	23d	1	1.11mi
1770 Suman Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	904	$1,145	$1.27	44d	1	1.12mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1354C Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$700	$0.78	44d	1	1.28mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1354A Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$675	$0.75	23d	1	1.28mi
2034 Leo St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	888	$1,100	$1.24	21d	1	1.29mi
1029 Blakley Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	947	$1,300	$1.37	2d	1	1.30mi
1143 Blakley Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	947	$1,195	$1.26	14d	1	1.41mi
2012 Saint Charles Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	945	$1,250	$1.32	44d	1	1.42mi
78 Notre Dame Ave Unit A Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,025	$1.01	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-06-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-23
   listed $35,000 Active
3. 2024-01-06
   historical
4. 2023-07-07
   listed $65,000 Active
5. 2022-09-15
   soldstatus $1,788,000
6. 2022-08-19
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   This home offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and one full bath! You’ll love the covered porch and the detached 2 car garage! You’ll also feel good knowing the seller has put in a newer furnace and updated the electric already! This is a great opportunity to make your own personal home or a great investment!Property and/or units are currently approved and tenanted through Section 8 at $850.

7. 2022-08-19
   soldstatus $65,000 Sold 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   This home offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and one full bath! You’ll love the covered porch and the detached 2 car garage! You’ll also feel good knowing the seller has put in a newer furnace and updated the electric already! This is a great opportunity to make your own personal home or a great investment!Property and/or units are currently approved and tenanted through Section 8 at $850.

8. 2022-07-07
   status Pending 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   This home offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and one full bath! You’ll love the covered porch and the detached 2 car garage! You’ll also feel good knowing the seller has put in a newer furnace and updated the electric already! This is a great opportunity to make your own personal home or a great investment!Property and/or units are currently approved and tenanted through Section 8 at $850.

9. 2022-05-19
   price $69,900 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   This home offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and one full bath! You’ll love the covered porch and the detached 2 car garage! You’ll also feel good knowing the seller has put in a newer furnace and updated the electric already! This is a great opportunity to make your own personal home or a great investment!Property and/or units are currently approved and tenanted through Section 8 at $850.

10. 2022-04-01
    listed $39,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This home offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and one full bath! You’ll love the covered porch and the detached 2 car garage! You’ll also feel good knowing the seller has put in a newer furnace and updated the electric already! This is a great opportunity to make your own personal home or a great investment!Property and/or units are currently approved and tenanted through Section 8 at $850.

11. 2018-04-30
    soldstatus $50,000
12. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $12,000 Closed
13. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $12,000
14. 2014-05-14
    historical
15. 2014-04-01
    listed $15,000
16. 2014-03-31
    historical
17. 2013-03-21
    listed $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $475 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $510 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$475
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,048
• − Management: −$1,048
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,769
• After-tax cash flow: $5,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,608
• Household income: $38,323
• Rent vs Own: 60.0% rent · 40.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1071.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.40%
• Current HPI: 447.4034
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+59.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-17 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $35,000 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-06 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2023-07-07 Listed $65,000 Dayton MLS
• 2022-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,788,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Dayton MLS
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Dayton MLS
• 2022-07-07 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2022-05-19 Price Changed $69,900 Dayton MLS
• 2022-04-01 Listed $39,000 Dayton MLS
• 2018-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $12,000 Dayton MLS
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $12,000 Dayton MLS
• 2014-05-14 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2014-04-01 Listed $15,000 Dayton MLS
• 2014-03-31 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2013-03-21 Listed $22,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $475 · +100.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.