1507 Gardenia Grove Ln · Crosby, TX 77532

$209,140

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Newlin Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $209,140 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $237,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $190,317 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,990
• List price: $209,140
• Delta: -12.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1518 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	1mo	$210,990	$139	97
1507 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-4%)	1mo	$178,540	$122	92
1550 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	0mo	$211,990	$128	75
1738 Primrose Pointe Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+5%)	1mo	$242,990	$152	74
1558 Gardenia Blossom Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	1mo	$207,990	$126	74
18646 Periwinkle Brook Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+9%)	1mo	$210,990	$127	72
1547 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-14%)	0mo	$198,990	$153	72
1534 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-14%)	1mo	$190,990	$147	72
1515 Golden Iris Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-14%)	1mo	$237,990	$182	70
1535 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	1mo	$216,990	$126	70
1535 Golden Iris Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-14%)	0mo	$188,990	$144	70
18515 Hazel Valley Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+15%)	1mo	$300,990	$172	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-59,192
• Equity at exit: $35,485

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-85,690
• Equity at exit: $20,577

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 57 active · 51 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.2 mo (31%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $253,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 51 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,325

Max offer price $197,536

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-197	+0% $-280	+5% $-362	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-357	+0% $-280	+5% $-202	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-219	base $-280	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,498
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	73d	1	0.04mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $209,140 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $209,140 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $209,140 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $209,140 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $209,140 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $209,140 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   days on market $209,140 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $209,140 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   remarks 618-char remark
10. 2026-07-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $209,140 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-21
    remarks 597-char remark
12. 2026-06-21
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $178,540 Pending 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-18
    days on market $209,140 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-17
    days on market $209,140 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-16
    days on market $209,140 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-06-15
    days on market $209,140 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-06-13
    days on market $209,140 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,140 Active 54 DOM
19. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,140 Active 53 DOM
20. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,140 Active 52 DOM
21. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,140 Active 49 DOM
22. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,140 Active 48 DOM
23. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,140 Active 47 DOM
24. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,140 Active 46 DOM
25. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,140 Active 45 DOM
26. 2026-04-27
    status Pending 603-char remark
27. 2026-04-25
    price $178,540 603-char remark
28. 2026-04-20
    status Active 603-char remark
29. 2026-04-20
    price $188,990 603-char remark
30. 2026-04-20
    status Pending 603-char remark
31. 2026-04-17
    price $192,990 603-char remark
32. 2026-04-17
    price $209,140
33. 2026-04-16
    listed $197,990 Active 603-char remark
34. 2026-04-16
    listed $212,990 Active
35. 2026-04-16
    historical
36. 2026-04-16
    historical
37. 2026-04-13
    status Active
38. 2026-04-13
    price $197,990
39. 2026-04-09
    status Active
40. 2026-04-09
    historical
41. 2026-04-07
    listed $212,990 Active
42. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
43. 2026-03-26
    price $253,990
44. 2026-03-19
    listed $202,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,331
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$6,923
• Taxable loss: −$7,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $178,540 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $188,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $209,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $192,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $253,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $202,990 HARMLS